Lula holds the leading position in Amapá first-round polls at 36-37% in July and August 2026 surveys from Real Time Big Data and American Analytics, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 31-36% and distant challengers such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos below 8%. This positioning aligns with Lula's stronger regional base in northern states and approval ratings near 50% among Amapá voters, while Bolsonaro's challenge remains more competitive in second-round hypotheticals. Trader consensus reflects these patterns through elevated implied probability on Lula for first place and sharply lower odds on alternatives, with limited movement from recent statewide polling data amid stable campaign alliances and no major shifts in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 65%
Flavio Bolsonaro 27%
Hertz Dias 3.4%
Pablo Marçal 3.3%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
65%
Flavio Bolsonaro
27%
Hertz Dias
3%
Pablo Marçal
3%
Rui Costa Pimenta
3%
Clariana Barao
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Lula 65%
Flavio Bolsonaro 27%
Hertz Dias 3.4%
Pablo Marçal 3.3%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$917 Vol.
65%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,010 Vol.
27%
Hertz Dias
$529 Vol.
3%
Pablo Marçal
$785 Vol.
3%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$473 Vol.
3%
Clariana Barao
$195 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$181 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$700 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$431 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$462 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$398 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$479 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$534 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the leading position in Amapá first-round polls at 36-37% in July and August 2026 surveys from Real Time Big Data and American Analytics, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 31-36% and distant challengers such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos below 8%. This positioning aligns with Lula's stronger regional base in northern states and approval ratings near 50% among Amapá voters, while Bolsonaro's challenge remains more competitive in second-round hypotheticals. Trader consensus reflects these patterns through elevated implied probability on Lula for first place and sharply lower odds on alternatives, with limited movement from recent statewide polling data amid stable campaign alliances and no major shifts in the past month.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$7,093End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the leading position in Amapá first-round polls at 36-37% in July and August 2026 surveys from Real Time Big Data and American Analytics, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 31-36% and distant challengers such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos below 8%. This positioning aligns with Lula's stronger regional base in northern states and approval ratings near 50% among Amapá voters, while Bolsonaro's challenge remains more competitive in second-round hypotheticals. Trader consensus reflects these patterns through elevated implied probability on Lula for first place and sharply lower odds on alternatives, with limited movement from recent statewide polling data amid stable campaign alliances and no major shifts in the past month.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,093End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds the leading position in Amapá first-round polls at 36-37% in July and August 2026 surveys from Real Time Big Data and American Analytics, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 31-36% and distant challengers such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos below 8%. This positioning aligns with Lula's stronger regional base in northern states and approval ratings near 50% among Amapá voters, while Bolsonaro's challenge remains more competitive in second-round hypotheticals. Trader consensus reflects these patterns through elevated implied probability on Lula for first place and sharply lower odds on alternatives, with limited movement from recent statewide polling data amid stable campaign alliances and no major shifts in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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