Rui Costa leads the Bahia Senate race for first place according to late-August polling from Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, reflecting his strong name recognition as former governor and ex-Casa Civil minister alongside PT organizational strength in the state. Voters select two senators on October 4, and recent surveys show him ahead of incumbent Jaques Wagner, with opposition figures João Roma and Angelo Coronel trailing in the second tier. These results align with trader pricing that assigns Rui Costa the highest implied probability for topping the ballot, while smaller candidates remain at negligible levels amid limited visibility and the dominance of established PT and center-right names. The race remains subject to shifts from final campaign momentum or turnout patterns before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRui Costa 81%
Jaques Wagner 10.2%
João Roma 3.5%
Angelo Coronel 1.1%
$19,794 Vol.
$19,794 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
81%
Jaques Wagner
10%
João Roma
9%
Angelo Coronel
1%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Rui Costa 81%
Jaques Wagner 10.2%
João Roma 3.5%
Angelo Coronel 1.1%
$19,794 Vol.
$19,794 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
$6,623 Vol.
81%
Jaques Wagner
$4,432 Vol.
10%
João Roma
$2,753 Vol.
9%
Angelo Coronel
$1,570 Vol.
1%
Professora Delliana
$629 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sodré
$800 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$691 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$741 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$810 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$746 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa leads the Bahia Senate race for first place according to late-August polling from Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, reflecting his strong name recognition as former governor and ex-Casa Civil minister alongside PT organizational strength in the state. Voters select two senators on October 4, and recent surveys show him ahead of incumbent Jaques Wagner, with opposition figures João Roma and Angelo Coronel trailing in the second tier. These results align with trader pricing that assigns Rui Costa the highest implied probability for topping the ballot, while smaller candidates remain at negligible levels amid limited visibility and the dominance of established PT and center-right names. The race remains subject to shifts from final campaign momentum or turnout patterns before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$19,794End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa leads the Bahia Senate race for first place according to late-August polling from Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, reflecting his strong name recognition as former governor and ex-Casa Civil minister alongside PT organizational strength in the state. Voters select two senators on October 4, and recent surveys show him ahead of incumbent Jaques Wagner, with opposition figures João Roma and Angelo Coronel trailing in the second tier. These results align with trader pricing that assigns Rui Costa the highest implied probability for topping the ballot, while smaller candidates remain at negligible levels amid limited visibility and the dominance of established PT and center-right names. The race remains subject to shifts from final campaign momentum or turnout patterns before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$19,794End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rui Costa leads the Bahia Senate race for first place according to late-August polling from Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, reflecting his strong name recognition as former governor and ex-Casa Civil minister alongside PT organizational strength in the state. Voters select two senators on October 4, and recent surveys show him ahead of incumbent Jaques Wagner, with opposition figures João Roma and Angelo Coronel trailing in the second tier. These results align with trader pricing that assigns Rui Costa the highest implied probability for topping the ballot, while smaller candidates remain at negligible levels amid limited visibility and the dominance of established PT and center-right names. The race remains subject to shifts from final campaign momentum or turnout patterns before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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