Recent polling from Paraná Pesquisas, released August 29, shows Rayssa Furlan (Podemos) with 56% support in the Amapá Senate race, where voters select two candidates, well ahead of Lucas Barreto (PSD) and Randolfe Rodrigues (PT) at 38.1% and 36.6%. An earlier Quaest survey from late August placed her at 27% overall. Her position benefits from the strong performance of her husband, Dr. Furlan (PSD), who leads the gubernatorial contest by roughly 27 points. Traders have assigned her an 84% implied probability of finishing first, consistent with her sustained advantage in the final weeks before the October 4 election. Lower probabilities for other contenders reflect their trailing positions in voter surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRayssa Furlan 84%
Lucas Barreto 6.7%
Randolfe 4.0%
Alliny Serrão <1%
$27,245 Vol.
$27,245 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rayssa Furlan
84%
Lucas Barreto
7%
Randolfe
7%
Alliny Serrão
1%
Professor Uzian Pinto
<1%
Acácio Favacho
<1%
Capi
<1%
Helio Silva
<1%
Juíza Jô
<1%
Rayssa Furlan 84%
Lucas Barreto 6.7%
Randolfe 4.0%
Alliny Serrão <1%
$27,245 Vol.
$27,245 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rayssa Furlan
$20,203 Vol.
84%
Lucas Barreto
$1,386 Vol.
7%
Randolfe
$1,266 Vol.
7%
Alliny Serrão
$1,038 Vol.
1%
Professor Uzian Pinto
$887 Vol.
<1%
Acácio Favacho
$541 Vol.
<1%
Capi
$718 Vol.
<1%
Helio Silva
$514 Vol.
<1%
Juíza Jô
$693 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Paraná Pesquisas, released August 29, shows Rayssa Furlan (Podemos) with 56% support in the Amapá Senate race, where voters select two candidates, well ahead of Lucas Barreto (PSD) and Randolfe Rodrigues (PT) at 38.1% and 36.6%. An earlier Quaest survey from late August placed her at 27% overall. Her position benefits from the strong performance of her husband, Dr. Furlan (PSD), who leads the gubernatorial contest by roughly 27 points. Traders have assigned her an 84% implied probability of finishing first, consistent with her sustained advantage in the final weeks before the October 4 election. Lower probabilities for other contenders reflect their trailing positions in voter surveys.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:54 AM ET
Volume
$27,245End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Paraná Pesquisas, released August 29, shows Rayssa Furlan (Podemos) with 56% support in the Amapá Senate race, where voters select two candidates, well ahead of Lucas Barreto (PSD) and Randolfe Rodrigues (PT) at 38.1% and 36.6%. An earlier Quaest survey from late August placed her at 27% overall. Her position benefits from the strong performance of her husband, Dr. Furlan (PSD), who leads the gubernatorial contest by roughly 27 points. Traders have assigned her an 84% implied probability of finishing first, consistent with her sustained advantage in the final weeks before the October 4 election. Lower probabilities for other contenders reflect their trailing positions in voter surveys.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$27,245End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Paraná Pesquisas, released August 29, shows Rayssa Furlan (Podemos) with 56% support in the Amapá Senate race, where voters select two candidates, well ahead of Lucas Barreto (PSD) and Randolfe Rodrigues (PT) at 38.1% and 36.6%. An earlier Quaest survey from late August placed her at 27% overall. Her position benefits from the strong performance of her husband, Dr. Furlan (PSD), who leads the gubernatorial contest by roughly 27 points. Traders have assigned her an 84% implied probability of finishing first, consistent with her sustained advantage in the final weeks before the October 4 election. Lower probabilities for other contenders reflect their trailing positions in voter surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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