Flávio Bolsonaro holds an overwhelming lead in trader pricing for first place in Espírito Santo’s presidential first round, reflecting the state’s consistent preference for non-PT candidates in recent national contests and polling patterns showing him competitive or ahead of Lula among capixaba voters. Recent surveys, including July data from Real Time Big Data and Quaest, indicate a technical tie or narrow edge for the PL senator in the first round alongside stronger runoff positioning, driven by regional dynamics in the Southeast and limited support for minor candidates. Lula trails significantly in implied probability, consistent with historical vote shares in the state, while fragmented fields featuring names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos register minimal shares. The first-round vote on October 4 will determine the outcome under Brazil’s electoral rules.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 87%
Lula 7.8%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi 3.5%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$14,189 Vol.
$14,189 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
87%
Lula
8%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
4%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 87%
Lula 7.8%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi 3.5%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$14,189 Vol.
$14,189 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$7,197 Vol.
87%
Lula
$299 Vol.
8%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$925 Vol.
4%
Edmilson Costa
$326 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$338 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$738 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$643 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$645 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$307 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$671 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$644 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$746 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$710 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds an overwhelming lead in trader pricing for first place in Espírito Santo’s presidential first round, reflecting the state’s consistent preference for non-PT candidates in recent national contests and polling patterns showing him competitive or ahead of Lula among capixaba voters. Recent surveys, including July data from Real Time Big Data and Quaest, indicate a technical tie or narrow edge for the PL senator in the first round alongside stronger runoff positioning, driven by regional dynamics in the Southeast and limited support for minor candidates. Lula trails significantly in implied probability, consistent with historical vote shares in the state, while fragmented fields featuring names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos register minimal shares. The first-round vote on October 4 will determine the outcome under Brazil’s electoral rules.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Volume
$14,189End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds an overwhelming lead in trader pricing for first place in Espírito Santo’s presidential first round, reflecting the state’s consistent preference for non-PT candidates in recent national contests and polling patterns showing him competitive or ahead of Lula among capixaba voters. Recent surveys, including July data from Real Time Big Data and Quaest, indicate a technical tie or narrow edge for the PL senator in the first round alongside stronger runoff positioning, driven by regional dynamics in the Southeast and limited support for minor candidates. Lula trails significantly in implied probability, consistent with historical vote shares in the state, while fragmented fields featuring names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos register minimal shares. The first-round vote on October 4 will determine the outcome under Brazil’s electoral rules.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$14,189End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro holds an overwhelming lead in trader pricing for first place in Espírito Santo’s presidential first round, reflecting the state’s consistent preference for non-PT candidates in recent national contests and polling patterns showing him competitive or ahead of Lula among capixaba voters. Recent surveys, including July data from Real Time Big Data and Quaest, indicate a technical tie or narrow edge for the PL senator in the first round alongside stronger runoff positioning, driven by regional dynamics in the Southeast and limited support for minor candidates. Lula trails significantly in implied probability, consistent with historical vote shares in the state, while fragmented fields featuring names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos register minimal shares. The first-round vote on October 4 will determine the outcome under Brazil’s electoral rules.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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