Recent AtlasIntel and Instituto Delta surveys from late July through mid-August show a statistical tie among Márcio Bittar (PL), Gladson Cameli (PP), and Mara Rocha (Republicanos) for the two Acre Senate seats, with each candidate receiving roughly 18-21 percent in combined first- and second-choice intentions and all falling inside the three-point margin of error. This narrow clustering drives the market’s near-even implied probabilities for second place, as any modest shift in voter preference among these three could reorder the final ranking. Lower-polling names such as Jorge Viana and Sérgio Petecão remain well behind and unlikely to reach the runoff threshold absent major late movement. With the October 4 election six weeks away, further polling releases, party endorsements, and campaign visibility in the state’s key municipalities will determine whether one contender pulls ahead or the contest stays fragmented.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGladson Camelí 34%
Mara Rocha 33%
Marcio Bittar 30.6%
Petecão 3.3%
$19,185 Vol.
$19,185 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Gladson Camelí
34%
Mara Rocha
33%
Marcio Bittar
31%
Petecão
3%
Jorge Viana
2%
Professor Inacio Moreira
<1%
Dr. Junior Feitosa
<1%
Eduardo Velloso
<1%
Gladson Camelí 34%
Mara Rocha 33%
Marcio Bittar 30.6%
Petecão 3.3%
$19,185 Vol.
$19,185 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Gladson Camelí
$5,904 Vol.
34%
Mara Rocha
$7,775 Vol.
33%
Marcio Bittar
$2,139 Vol.
31%
Petecão
$1,406 Vol.
3%
Jorge Viana
$619 Vol.
2%
Professor Inacio Moreira
$402 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Junior Feitosa
$510 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Velloso
$430 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Acre is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent AtlasIntel and Instituto Delta surveys from late July through mid-August show a statistical tie among Márcio Bittar (PL), Gladson Cameli (PP), and Mara Rocha (Republicanos) for the two Acre Senate seats, with each candidate receiving roughly 18-21 percent in combined first- and second-choice intentions and all falling inside the three-point margin of error. This narrow clustering drives the market’s near-even implied probabilities for second place, as any modest shift in voter preference among these three could reorder the final ranking. Lower-polling names such as Jorge Viana and Sérgio Petecão remain well behind and unlikely to reach the runoff threshold absent major late movement. With the October 4 election six weeks away, further polling releases, party endorsements, and campaign visibility in the state’s key municipalities will determine whether one contender pulls ahead or the contest stays fragmented.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Acre is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:48 AM ET
Volume
$19,185End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:48 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Acre is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent AtlasIntel and Instituto Delta surveys from late July through mid-August show a statistical tie among Márcio Bittar (PL), Gladson Cameli (PP), and Mara Rocha (Republicanos) for the two Acre Senate seats, with each candidate receiving roughly 18-21 percent in combined first- and second-choice intentions and all falling inside the three-point margin of error. This narrow clustering drives the market’s near-even implied probabilities for second place, as any modest shift in voter preference among these three could reorder the final ranking. Lower-polling names such as Jorge Viana and Sérgio Petecão remain well behind and unlikely to reach the runoff threshold absent major late movement. With the October 4 election six weeks away, further polling releases, party endorsements, and campaign visibility in the state’s key municipalities will determine whether one contender pulls ahead or the contest stays fragmented.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Acre is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$19,185End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:48 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AtlasIntel and Instituto Delta surveys from late July through mid-August show a statistical tie among Márcio Bittar (PL), Gladson Cameli (PP), and Mara Rocha (Republicanos) for the two Acre Senate seats, with each candidate receiving roughly 18-21 percent in combined first- and second-choice intentions and all falling inside the three-point margin of error. This narrow clustering drives the market’s near-even implied probabilities for second place, as any modest shift in voter preference among these three could reorder the final ranking. Lower-polling names such as Jorge Viana and Sérgio Petecão remain well behind and unlikely to reach the runoff threshold absent major late movement. With the October 4 election six weeks away, further polling releases, party endorsements, and campaign visibility in the state’s key municipalities will determine whether one contender pulls ahead or the contest stays fragmented.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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