Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor seeking re-election, holds a commanding lead in late-August 2026 polls, with first-round support ranging from 40% to 52% against Fernando Haddad (PT) at 27-35% and all other registered candidates combined below 6%. Multiple surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show decisive margins that would avoid a runoff, backed by high name recognition, stable voter intentions, and low undecided shares in stimulated scenarios. The October 4 first-round vote and October 25 potential runoff fall within the near-term window, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Minor candidates such as Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França register negligible polling support. A realistic shift would require major late-campaign developments or turnout anomalies that reverse the established gap before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTarcísio de Freitas 97.3%
Fernando Haddad 2.1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$292,976 Vol.
$292,976 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
97%
Fernando Haddad
2%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 97.3%
Fernando Haddad 2.1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$292,976 Vol.
$292,976 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$133,797 Vol.
97%
Fernando Haddad
$48,655 Vol.
2%
Erika Hilton
$23,007 Vol.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$76,849 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor seeking re-election, holds a commanding lead in late-August 2026 polls, with first-round support ranging from 40% to 52% against Fernando Haddad (PT) at 27-35% and all other registered candidates combined below 6%. Multiple surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show decisive margins that would avoid a runoff, backed by high name recognition, stable voter intentions, and low undecided shares in stimulated scenarios. The October 4 first-round vote and October 25 potential runoff fall within the near-term window, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Minor candidates such as Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França register negligible polling support. A realistic shift would require major late-campaign developments or turnout anomalies that reverse the established gap before ballots close.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$292,976End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor seeking re-election, holds a commanding lead in late-August 2026 polls, with first-round support ranging from 40% to 52% against Fernando Haddad (PT) at 27-35% and all other registered candidates combined below 6%. Multiple surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show decisive margins that would avoid a runoff, backed by high name recognition, stable voter intentions, and low undecided shares in stimulated scenarios. The October 4 first-round vote and October 25 potential runoff fall within the near-term window, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Minor candidates such as Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França register negligible polling support. A realistic shift would require major late-campaign developments or turnout anomalies that reverse the established gap before ballots close.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$292,976End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor seeking re-election, holds a commanding lead in late-August 2026 polls, with first-round support ranging from 40% to 52% against Fernando Haddad (PT) at 27-35% and all other registered candidates combined below 6%. Multiple surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show decisive margins that would avoid a runoff, backed by high name recognition, stable voter intentions, and low undecided shares in stimulated scenarios. The October 4 first-round vote and October 25 potential runoff fall within the near-term window, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Minor candidates such as Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França register negligible polling support. A realistic shift would require major late-campaign developments or turnout anomalies that reverse the established gap before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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