Recent mid-August polls from Datafolha, Paraná Pesquisas, Ideia, and Quaest show a fragmented contest for São Paulo’s two Senate seats on October 4, with Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, and Guilherme Derrite locked in technical ties or narrow leads amid 14–35% undecided or blank responses. Derrite’s alignment with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and state security record, Tebet’s national profile as former Planning Minister, and Silva’s environmental credentials keep the field competitive, while André do Prado and Ricardo Salles remain viable. High voter indecision and varying poll methodologies sustain tight trader pricing for first place, with separation likely hinging on late consolidation, turnout among swing voters, or campaign momentum in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGuilherme Derrite 47%
Simone Tebet 31.1%
Marina Silva 12%
Salles 3.3%
$26,722 Vol.
$26,722 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Guilherme Derrite
47%
Simone Tebet
31%
Marina Silva
12%
Salles
3%
André do Prado
6%
Soninha Francine
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
William Teixeira
<1%
Maíra de Souza
<1%
Marcio Alves
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Guilherme Derrite 47%
Simone Tebet 31.1%
Marina Silva 12%
Salles 3.3%
$26,722 Vol.
$26,722 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Guilherme Derrite
$13,134 Vol.
47%
Simone Tebet
$1,833 Vol.
31%
Marina Silva
$3,401 Vol.
12%
Salles
$1,514 Vol.
3%
André do Prado
$2,156 Vol.
6%
Soninha Francine
$474 Vol.
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
$383 Vol.
<1%
William Teixeira
$700 Vol.
<1%
Maíra de Souza
$368 Vol.
<1%
Marcio Alves
$552 Vol.
<1%
Petter Maahs
$405 Vol.
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$613 Vol.
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$737 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
$452 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent mid-August polls from Datafolha, Paraná Pesquisas, Ideia, and Quaest show a fragmented contest for São Paulo’s two Senate seats on October 4, with Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, and Guilherme Derrite locked in technical ties or narrow leads amid 14–35% undecided or blank responses. Derrite’s alignment with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and state security record, Tebet’s national profile as former Planning Minister, and Silva’s environmental credentials keep the field competitive, while André do Prado and Ricardo Salles remain viable. High voter indecision and varying poll methodologies sustain tight trader pricing for first place, with separation likely hinging on late consolidation, turnout among swing voters, or campaign momentum in the final weeks.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$26,722End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent mid-August polls from Datafolha, Paraná Pesquisas, Ideia, and Quaest show a fragmented contest for São Paulo’s two Senate seats on October 4, with Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, and Guilherme Derrite locked in technical ties or narrow leads amid 14–35% undecided or blank responses. Derrite’s alignment with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and state security record, Tebet’s national profile as former Planning Minister, and Silva’s environmental credentials keep the field competitive, while André do Prado and Ricardo Salles remain viable. High voter indecision and varying poll methodologies sustain tight trader pricing for first place, with separation likely hinging on late consolidation, turnout among swing voters, or campaign momentum in the final weeks.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$26,722End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent mid-August polls from Datafolha, Paraná Pesquisas, Ideia, and Quaest show a fragmented contest for São Paulo’s two Senate seats on October 4, with Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, and Guilherme Derrite locked in technical ties or narrow leads amid 14–35% undecided or blank responses. Derrite’s alignment with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and state security record, Tebet’s national profile as former Planning Minister, and Silva’s environmental credentials keep the field competitive, while André do Prado and Ricardo Salles remain viable. High voter indecision and varying poll methodologies sustain tight trader pricing for first place, with separation likely hinging on late consolidation, turnout among swing voters, or campaign momentum in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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