In Santa Catarina's 2026 Senate race, where the top two candidates win under plurality block voting, trader consensus reflects a tight contest among leading contenders. The PL party's early August convention formalized federal deputy Carol de Toni and Carlos Bolsonaro as its nominees, positioning de Toni ahead in recent polling and market pricing while Bolsonaro trails. Long-serving figure Esperidião Amin remains a notable presence alongside lower-profile entrants. Multiple right-leaning candidacies, including these and others, continue to fragment support and sustain narrow margins among frontrunners. Upcoming party conventions, coalition negotiations, and any shifts in voter turnout patterns across the state could widen or further compress these probabilities before the October general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carol de Toni 26%
Carlos Bolsonaro 25%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter 1.7%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado <1%
$12,240 Vol.
$12,240 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carol de Toni
41%
Carlos Bolsonaro
25%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
2%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
1%
Carol
<1%
Décio Lima
<1%
Marlene Soccas
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
<1%
Lunelli
<1%
Marcos Dorval
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
<1%
Esperidião Amin
27%
Carol de Toni 26%
Carlos Bolsonaro 25%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter 1.7%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado <1%
$12,240 Vol.
$12,240 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carol de Toni
$3,344 Vol.
41%
Carlos Bolsonaro
$3,280 Vol.
25%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
$341 Vol.
2%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
$786 Vol.
1%
Carol
$483 Vol.
<1%
Décio Lima
$489 Vol.
<1%
Marlene Soccas
$531 Vol.
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
$460 Vol.
<1%
Lunelli
$476 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dorval
$289 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$435 Vol.
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
$401 Vol.
<1%
Esperidião Amin
$924 Vol.
27%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In Santa Catarina's 2026 Senate race, where the top two candidates win under plurality block voting, trader consensus reflects a tight contest among leading contenders. The PL party's early August convention formalized federal deputy Carol de Toni and Carlos Bolsonaro as its nominees, positioning de Toni ahead in recent polling and market pricing while Bolsonaro trails. Long-serving figure Esperidião Amin remains a notable presence alongside lower-profile entrants. Multiple right-leaning candidacies, including these and others, continue to fragment support and sustain narrow margins among frontrunners. Upcoming party conventions, coalition negotiations, and any shifts in voter turnout patterns across the state could widen or further compress these probabilities before the October general election.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$12,240End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In Santa Catarina's 2026 Senate race, where the top two candidates win under plurality block voting, trader consensus reflects a tight contest among leading contenders. The PL party's early August convention formalized federal deputy Carol de Toni and Carlos Bolsonaro as its nominees, positioning de Toni ahead in recent polling and market pricing while Bolsonaro trails. Long-serving figure Esperidião Amin remains a notable presence alongside lower-profile entrants. Multiple right-leaning candidacies, including these and others, continue to fragment support and sustain narrow margins among frontrunners. Upcoming party conventions, coalition negotiations, and any shifts in voter turnout patterns across the state could widen or further compress these probabilities before the October general election.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$12,240End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In Santa Catarina's 2026 Senate race, where the top two candidates win under plurality block voting, trader consensus reflects a tight contest among leading contenders. The PL party's early August convention formalized federal deputy Carol de Toni and Carlos Bolsonaro as its nominees, positioning de Toni ahead in recent polling and market pricing while Bolsonaro trails. Long-serving figure Esperidião Amin remains a notable presence alongside lower-profile entrants. Multiple right-leaning candidacies, including these and others, continue to fragment support and sustain narrow margins among frontrunners. Upcoming party conventions, coalition negotiations, and any shifts in voter turnout patterns across the state could widen or further compress these probabilities before the October general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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