The Roraima Senate race for two seats on October 4, 2026 features a crowded field of 13 candidates that fragments support and keeps second-place probabilities tightly clustered. Trader consensus places Helio Bolsonaro (PL) and Chico Rodrigues (PSB) as the clearest contenders for the slot behind presumed first-place finisher Teresa Surita (MDB), with the former leveraging national Bolsonarista networks after his July 2026 voter registration transfer and the latter drawing on incumbency and established regional ties. Recent party conventions and candidacy filings have highlighted vote-splitting risks within the PL, including with federal deputy Nicoletti, while veterans such as Surita and Rodrigues anchor local bases. Absent new polling data or coordination agreements that consolidate anti-incumbent or partisan blocs, the fragmented electorate sustains close implied probabilities across the top challengers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedChico Rodrigues 33%
Helio Bolsonaro 30.9%
Teresa Surita 19%
Rogério Miranda 8.2%
$18,794 Vol.
$18,794 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Chico Rodrigues
33%
Helio Bolsonaro
31%
Teresa Surita
19%
Rogério Miranda
8%
Helena da Asatur
8%
Nicoletti
8%
Márcio Junqueira
5%
Mario Rocha
5%
Hiperion de Oliveira
4%
Regina Tio Ivo
4%
Pastor Isamar
3%
Hilton Xavier
2%
Bartô Macuxi
1%
Chico Rodrigues 33%
Helio Bolsonaro 30.9%
Teresa Surita 19%
Rogério Miranda 8.2%
$18,794 Vol.
$18,794 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Chico Rodrigues
$3,329 Vol.
33%
Helio Bolsonaro
$5,862 Vol.
31%
Teresa Surita
$5,757 Vol.
19%
Rogério Miranda
$175 Vol.
8%
Helena da Asatur
$205 Vol.
8%
Nicoletti
$2,164 Vol.
8%
Márcio Junqueira
$168 Vol.
5%
Mario Rocha
$159 Vol.
5%
Hiperion de Oliveira
$167 Vol.
4%
Regina Tio Ivo
$181 Vol.
4%
Pastor Isamar
$299 Vol.
3%
Hilton Xavier
$147 Vol.
2%
Bartô Macuxi
$179 Vol.
1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Roraima Senate race for two seats on October 4, 2026 features a crowded field of 13 candidates that fragments support and keeps second-place probabilities tightly clustered. Trader consensus places Helio Bolsonaro (PL) and Chico Rodrigues (PSB) as the clearest contenders for the slot behind presumed first-place finisher Teresa Surita (MDB), with the former leveraging national Bolsonarista networks after his July 2026 voter registration transfer and the latter drawing on incumbency and established regional ties. Recent party conventions and candidacy filings have highlighted vote-splitting risks within the PL, including with federal deputy Nicoletti, while veterans such as Surita and Rodrigues anchor local bases. Absent new polling data or coordination agreements that consolidate anti-incumbent or partisan blocs, the fragmented electorate sustains close implied probabilities across the top challengers.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
Volume
$18,794End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Roraima Senate race for two seats on October 4, 2026 features a crowded field of 13 candidates that fragments support and keeps second-place probabilities tightly clustered. Trader consensus places Helio Bolsonaro (PL) and Chico Rodrigues (PSB) as the clearest contenders for the slot behind presumed first-place finisher Teresa Surita (MDB), with the former leveraging national Bolsonarista networks after his July 2026 voter registration transfer and the latter drawing on incumbency and established regional ties. Recent party conventions and candidacy filings have highlighted vote-splitting risks within the PL, including with federal deputy Nicoletti, while veterans such as Surita and Rodrigues anchor local bases. Absent new polling data or coordination agreements that consolidate anti-incumbent or partisan blocs, the fragmented electorate sustains close implied probabilities across the top challengers.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$18,794End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Roraima Senate race for two seats on October 4, 2026 features a crowded field of 13 candidates that fragments support and keeps second-place probabilities tightly clustered. Trader consensus places Helio Bolsonaro (PL) and Chico Rodrigues (PSB) as the clearest contenders for the slot behind presumed first-place finisher Teresa Surita (MDB), with the former leveraging national Bolsonarista networks after his July 2026 voter registration transfer and the latter drawing on incumbency and established regional ties. Recent party conventions and candidacy filings have highlighted vote-splitting risks within the PL, including with federal deputy Nicoletti, while veterans such as Surita and Rodrigues anchor local bases. Absent new polling data or coordination agreements that consolidate anti-incumbent or partisan blocs, the fragmented electorate sustains close implied probabilities across the top challengers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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