Recent polling from mid-August shows Marília Arraes holding a clear lead for one Senate seat in Pernambuco, leaving a narrow contest for second place among Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho (PL), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP). Costa maintains a slim edge in the latest Real Time Big Data and Datafolha surveys, though Mendonça has narrowed the gap within margins of error as campaigns intensify ahead of the October 4 vote. Coalition alignments with the gubernatorial race, including Arraes on the João Campos ticket and others tied to Raquel Lyra’s group, continue to shape voter consolidation. Tight spreads reflect low undecided shares and comparable name recognition among the top contenders. Further separation could emerge from late-September debate performances, targeted regional mobilization in Recife and the interior, or shifts in turnout among PT and PL bases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHumberto Costa 46%
Mendonça Filho 34%
Marília Arraes 13.3%
Eduardo da Fonte 6.4%
$20,144 Vol.
$20,144 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Humberto Costa
46%
Mendonça Filho
34%
Marília Arraes
13%
Eduardo da Fonte
6%
Túlio Gadêlha
1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Humberto Costa 46%
Mendonça Filho 34%
Marília Arraes 13.3%
Eduardo da Fonte 6.4%
$20,144 Vol.
$20,144 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Humberto Costa
$7,724 Vol.
46%
Mendonça Filho
$4,316 Vol.
34%
Marília Arraes
$3,429 Vol.
13%
Eduardo da Fonte
$635 Vol.
6%
Túlio Gadêlha
$535 Vol.
1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$494 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$467 Vol.
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
$554 Vol.
<1%
Gorett Bitu
$540 Vol.
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$527 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$490 Vol.
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$433 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from mid-August shows Marília Arraes holding a clear lead for one Senate seat in Pernambuco, leaving a narrow contest for second place among Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho (PL), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP). Costa maintains a slim edge in the latest Real Time Big Data and Datafolha surveys, though Mendonça has narrowed the gap within margins of error as campaigns intensify ahead of the October 4 vote. Coalition alignments with the gubernatorial race, including Arraes on the João Campos ticket and others tied to Raquel Lyra’s group, continue to shape voter consolidation. Tight spreads reflect low undecided shares and comparable name recognition among the top contenders. Further separation could emerge from late-September debate performances, targeted regional mobilization in Recife and the interior, or shifts in turnout among PT and PL bases.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Volume
$20,144End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from mid-August shows Marília Arraes holding a clear lead for one Senate seat in Pernambuco, leaving a narrow contest for second place among Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho (PL), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP). Costa maintains a slim edge in the latest Real Time Big Data and Datafolha surveys, though Mendonça has narrowed the gap within margins of error as campaigns intensify ahead of the October 4 vote. Coalition alignments with the gubernatorial race, including Arraes on the João Campos ticket and others tied to Raquel Lyra’s group, continue to shape voter consolidation. Tight spreads reflect low undecided shares and comparable name recognition among the top contenders. Further separation could emerge from late-September debate performances, targeted regional mobilization in Recife and the interior, or shifts in turnout among PT and PL bases.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20,144End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-August shows Marília Arraes holding a clear lead for one Senate seat in Pernambuco, leaving a narrow contest for second place among Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho (PL), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP). Costa maintains a slim edge in the latest Real Time Big Data and Datafolha surveys, though Mendonça has narrowed the gap within margins of error as campaigns intensify ahead of the October 4 vote. Coalition alignments with the gubernatorial race, including Arraes on the João Campos ticket and others tied to Raquel Lyra’s group, continue to shape voter consolidation. Tight spreads reflect low undecided shares and comparable name recognition among the top contenders. Further separation could emerge from late-September debate performances, targeted regional mobilization in Recife and the interior, or shifts in turnout among PT and PL bases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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