Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the market lead for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate contest at 56%, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at roughly 25% and trailing candidates below 3%, reflecting recent polling averages where Arraes registers 15–19% and Costa 12–14% in stimulated scenarios allowing two votes per elector. Both candidates run on the same majoritarian alliance headed by João Campos, which structures voter preferences around the two available seats and contributes to the compressed field. August surveys from Quaest and Datafolha show elevated undecided (12–26%) and blank/null shares (20–24%), sustaining volatility in first-place positioning. Mendonça Filho (PL) and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) register single-digit support as independent or opposing-slate options, while the official campaign period that opened mid-August has yet to produce decisive shifts capable of separating the top contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarília Arraes 55%
Humberto Costa 24.6%
Mendonça Filho 2.9%
Eduardo da Fonte 1.6%
$25,851 Vol.
$25,851 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
55%
Humberto Costa
25%
Mendonça Filho
3%
Eduardo da Fonte
2%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Marília Arraes 55%
Humberto Costa 24.6%
Mendonça Filho 2.9%
Eduardo da Fonte 1.6%
$25,851 Vol.
$25,851 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
$11,864 Vol.
55%
Humberto Costa
$7,844 Vol.
25%
Mendonça Filho
$1,238 Vol.
3%
Eduardo da Fonte
$798 Vol.
2%
Gorett Bitu
$542 Vol.
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$470 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$542 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$549 Vol.
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$493 Vol.
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
$500 Vol.
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
$486 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$523 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the market lead for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate contest at 56%, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at roughly 25% and trailing candidates below 3%, reflecting recent polling averages where Arraes registers 15–19% and Costa 12–14% in stimulated scenarios allowing two votes per elector. Both candidates run on the same majoritarian alliance headed by João Campos, which structures voter preferences around the two available seats and contributes to the compressed field. August surveys from Quaest and Datafolha show elevated undecided (12–26%) and blank/null shares (20–24%), sustaining volatility in first-place positioning. Mendonça Filho (PL) and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) register single-digit support as independent or opposing-slate options, while the official campaign period that opened mid-August has yet to produce decisive shifts capable of separating the top contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$25,851End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the market lead for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate contest at 56%, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at roughly 25% and trailing candidates below 3%, reflecting recent polling averages where Arraes registers 15–19% and Costa 12–14% in stimulated scenarios allowing two votes per elector. Both candidates run on the same majoritarian alliance headed by João Campos, which structures voter preferences around the two available seats and contributes to the compressed field. August surveys from Quaest and Datafolha show elevated undecided (12–26%) and blank/null shares (20–24%), sustaining volatility in first-place positioning. Mendonça Filho (PL) and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) register single-digit support as independent or opposing-slate options, while the official campaign period that opened mid-August has yet to produce decisive shifts capable of separating the top contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$25,851End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the market lead for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate contest at 56%, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at roughly 25% and trailing candidates below 3%, reflecting recent polling averages where Arraes registers 15–19% and Costa 12–14% in stimulated scenarios allowing two votes per elector. Both candidates run on the same majoritarian alliance headed by João Campos, which structures voter preferences around the two available seats and contributes to the compressed field. August surveys from Quaest and Datafolha show elevated undecided (12–26%) and blank/null shares (20–24%), sustaining volatility in first-place positioning. Mendonça Filho (PL) and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) register single-digit support as independent or opposing-slate options, while the official campaign period that opened mid-August has yet to produce decisive shifts capable of separating the top contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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