Marília Arraes (PDT) leads the race for first place in Pernambuco's October 4, 2026 Senate contest, with recent August polls from Real Time Big Data and Datafolha showing her ahead of incumbents and rivals by double-digit or narrowing margins. Mid-August surveys placed her at 29% or 15% respectively, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL) in the fight for the second seat, reflecting her established name recognition from prior federal deputy service and party positioning. Trader consensus assigns her the highest implied probability for topping the field, consistent with polling trends over recent months and the absence of late disruptive shifts among the field of more than a dozen candidates. The two-seat structure and undecided voters leave room for movement before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarília Arraes 64%
Humberto Costa 22.5%
Mendonça Filho 2.4%
Eduardo da Fonte 1.6%
$22,960 Vol.
$22,960 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
64%
Humberto Costa
23%
Mendonça Filho
2%
Eduardo da Fonte
2%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Marília Arraes 64%
Humberto Costa 22.5%
Mendonça Filho 2.4%
Eduardo da Fonte 1.6%
$22,960 Vol.
$22,960 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
$10,127 Vol.
64%
Humberto Costa
$6,812 Vol.
23%
Mendonça Filho
$1,212 Vol.
2%
Eduardo da Fonte
$798 Vol.
2%
Gorett Bitu
$525 Vol.
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$490 Vol.
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$470 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$542 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$549 Vol.
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
$500 Vol.
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
$429 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$505 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) leads the race for first place in Pernambuco's October 4, 2026 Senate contest, with recent August polls from Real Time Big Data and Datafolha showing her ahead of incumbents and rivals by double-digit or narrowing margins. Mid-August surveys placed her at 29% or 15% respectively, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL) in the fight for the second seat, reflecting her established name recognition from prior federal deputy service and party positioning. Trader consensus assigns her the highest implied probability for topping the field, consistent with polling trends over recent months and the absence of late disruptive shifts among the field of more than a dozen candidates. The two-seat structure and undecided voters leave room for movement before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$22,960End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) leads the race for first place in Pernambuco's October 4, 2026 Senate contest, with recent August polls from Real Time Big Data and Datafolha showing her ahead of incumbents and rivals by double-digit or narrowing margins. Mid-August surveys placed her at 29% or 15% respectively, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL) in the fight for the second seat, reflecting her established name recognition from prior federal deputy service and party positioning. Trader consensus assigns her the highest implied probability for topping the field, consistent with polling trends over recent months and the absence of late disruptive shifts among the field of more than a dozen candidates. The two-seat structure and undecided voters leave room for movement before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$22,960End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Marília Arraes (PDT) leads the race for first place in Pernambuco's October 4, 2026 Senate contest, with recent August polls from Real Time Big Data and Datafolha showing her ahead of incumbents and rivals by double-digit or narrowing margins. Mid-August surveys placed her at 29% or 15% respectively, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL) in the fight for the second seat, reflecting her established name recognition from prior federal deputy service and party positioning. Trader consensus assigns her the highest implied probability for topping the field, consistent with polling trends over recent months and the absence of late disruptive shifts among the field of more than a dozen candidates. The two-seat structure and undecided voters leave room for movement before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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