Recent late-August polls show a tight contest for Paraná’s two Senate seats, with Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Alexandre Curi (Republicanos), Filipe Barros (PL), Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), and Cristina Graeml (PSD) separated by just a few points in consolidated first- and second-preference voting. High numbers of undecided and blank/null responses, combined with regional variations across the state, sustain the closeness for second place. Legal proceedings over Deltan’s eligibility, including a recent favorable Ministério Público Eleitoral opinion, add uncertainty that affects positioning. Alliances, such as governor Ratinho Junior’s backing for Curi, and PT efforts to consolidate votes behind Gleisi and Dr. Rosinha further fragment support. Trader consensus reflects these polling margins and pending court outcomes that could shift second-place probabilities before the October election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlexandre Curi 36%
Filipe Barros 24%
Deltan Dallagnol 22%
Gleisi 12.3%
$25,373 Vol.
$25,373 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Curi
36%
Filipe Barros
24%
Deltan Dallagnol
25%
Gleisi
12%
Cristina Reis Graeml
7%
Dr. Rosinha
1%
Marcelo Marcelino
1%
Joaquim do MLB
<1%
Karen Guerreiro
<1%
Alexandre Curi 36%
Filipe Barros 24%
Deltan Dallagnol 22%
Gleisi 12.3%
$25,373 Vol.
$25,373 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Curi
$3,908 Vol.
36%
Filipe Barros
$9,426 Vol.
24%
Deltan Dallagnol
$5,915 Vol.
25%
Gleisi
$2,624 Vol.
12%
Cristina Reis Graeml
$1,095 Vol.
7%
Dr. Rosinha
$559 Vol.
1%
Marcelo Marcelino
$590 Vol.
1%
Joaquim do MLB
$697 Vol.
<1%
Karen Guerreiro
$560 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent late-August polls show a tight contest for Paraná’s two Senate seats, with Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Alexandre Curi (Republicanos), Filipe Barros (PL), Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), and Cristina Graeml (PSD) separated by just a few points in consolidated first- and second-preference voting. High numbers of undecided and blank/null responses, combined with regional variations across the state, sustain the closeness for second place. Legal proceedings over Deltan’s eligibility, including a recent favorable Ministério Público Eleitoral opinion, add uncertainty that affects positioning. Alliances, such as governor Ratinho Junior’s backing for Curi, and PT efforts to consolidate votes behind Gleisi and Dr. Rosinha further fragment support. Trader consensus reflects these polling margins and pending court outcomes that could shift second-place probabilities before the October election.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$25,373End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent late-August polls show a tight contest for Paraná’s two Senate seats, with Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Alexandre Curi (Republicanos), Filipe Barros (PL), Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), and Cristina Graeml (PSD) separated by just a few points in consolidated first- and second-preference voting. High numbers of undecided and blank/null responses, combined with regional variations across the state, sustain the closeness for second place. Legal proceedings over Deltan’s eligibility, including a recent favorable Ministério Público Eleitoral opinion, add uncertainty that affects positioning. Alliances, such as governor Ratinho Junior’s backing for Curi, and PT efforts to consolidate votes behind Gleisi and Dr. Rosinha further fragment support. Trader consensus reflects these polling margins and pending court outcomes that could shift second-place probabilities before the October election.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$25,373End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent late-August polls show a tight contest for Paraná’s two Senate seats, with Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Alexandre Curi (Republicanos), Filipe Barros (PL), Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), and Cristina Graeml (PSD) separated by just a few points in consolidated first- and second-preference voting. High numbers of undecided and blank/null responses, combined with regional variations across the state, sustain the closeness for second place. Legal proceedings over Deltan’s eligibility, including a recent favorable Ministério Público Eleitoral opinion, add uncertainty that affects positioning. Alliances, such as governor Ratinho Junior’s backing for Curi, and PT efforts to consolidate votes behind Gleisi and Dr. Rosinha further fragment support. Trader consensus reflects these polling margins and pending court outcomes that could shift second-place probabilities before the October election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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