Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 81% implied probability for first place in the October 4, 2026 Pará Senate race due to consistent polling leads as the top vote-getter. Recent surveys, including AtlasIntel (mid-August) and Genial/Quaest (late July), show him at 21-27% combined intentions and 34% as voters' first choice, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 14-21%. Helder's profile as a two-term former governor, family political network, and MDB alliances in the state underpin his position. The field for second place remains fragmented among Zequinha Marinho (Podemos), Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União), and others, with high undecided shares and the dual-vote system limiting separation among lower-polling names. No major campaign shifts have altered these patterns since the latest surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHelder 81%
Zequinha Marinho 10.2%
Delegado Éder Mauro 8.6%
Edlaine Rodrigues 3.0%
$12,834 Vol.
$12,834 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Helder
81%
Zequinha Marinho
10%
Delegado Éder Mauro
9%
Edlaine Rodrigues
3%
Conti
1%
Breno Guimarães
1%
Fernanda Lopes
1%
Gizelle Freitas
1%
Chicão
1%
Willem da Silva
<1%
Celso Sabino
<1%
Helder 81%
Zequinha Marinho 10.2%
Delegado Éder Mauro 8.6%
Edlaine Rodrigues 3.0%
$12,834 Vol.
$12,834 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Helder
$8,008 Vol.
81%
Zequinha Marinho
$514 Vol.
10%
Delegado Éder Mauro
$535 Vol.
9%
Edlaine Rodrigues
$545 Vol.
3%
Conti
$496 Vol.
1%
Breno Guimarães
$465 Vol.
1%
Fernanda Lopes
$549 Vol.
1%
Gizelle Freitas
$507 Vol.
1%
Chicão
$433 Vol.
1%
Willem da Silva
$339 Vol.
<1%
Celso Sabino
$444 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 81% implied probability for first place in the October 4, 2026 Pará Senate race due to consistent polling leads as the top vote-getter. Recent surveys, including AtlasIntel (mid-August) and Genial/Quaest (late July), show him at 21-27% combined intentions and 34% as voters' first choice, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 14-21%. Helder's profile as a two-term former governor, family political network, and MDB alliances in the state underpin his position. The field for second place remains fragmented among Zequinha Marinho (Podemos), Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União), and others, with high undecided shares and the dual-vote system limiting separation among lower-polling names. No major campaign shifts have altered these patterns since the latest surveys.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$12,834End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 81% implied probability for first place in the October 4, 2026 Pará Senate race due to consistent polling leads as the top vote-getter. Recent surveys, including AtlasIntel (mid-August) and Genial/Quaest (late July), show him at 21-27% combined intentions and 34% as voters' first choice, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 14-21%. Helder's profile as a two-term former governor, family political network, and MDB alliances in the state underpin his position. The field for second place remains fragmented among Zequinha Marinho (Podemos), Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União), and others, with high undecided shares and the dual-vote system limiting separation among lower-polling names. No major campaign shifts have altered these patterns since the latest surveys.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$12,834End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 81% implied probability for first place in the October 4, 2026 Pará Senate race due to consistent polling leads as the top vote-getter. Recent surveys, including AtlasIntel (mid-August) and Genial/Quaest (late July), show him at 21-27% combined intentions and 34% as voters' first choice, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 14-21%. Helder's profile as a two-term former governor, family political network, and MDB alliances in the state underpin his position. The field for second place remains fragmented among Zequinha Marinho (Podemos), Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União), and others, with high undecided shares and the dual-vote system limiting separation among lower-polling names. No major campaign shifts have altered these patterns since the latest surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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