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icon for Mato Grosso do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Mato Grosso do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place

icon for Mato Grosso do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Mato Grosso do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place

Capitão Contar 66%

Vander Loubet 28%

Reinaldo Azambuja 1.8%

Soraya 1.1%

Polymarket
NEW

Capitão Contar 66%

Vander Loubet 28%

Reinaldo Azambuja 1.8%

Soraya 1.1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Capitão Contar

Capitão Contar

$1,920 Vol.

66%

icon for Vander Loubet

Vander Loubet

$1,838 Vol.

28%

icon for Reinaldo Azambuja

Reinaldo Azambuja

$275 Vol.

2%

icon for Soraya

Soraya

$270 Vol.

1%

icon for Luiz Lemes

Luiz Lemes

$312 Vol.

1%

icon for Beto do Movimento

Beto do Movimento

$298 Vol.

1%

icon for Roberto Oshiro

Roberto Oshiro

$312 Vol.

1%

icon for Valter da Comagran

Valter da Comagran

$309 Vol.

<1%

icon for Daniel Junior

Daniel Junior

$234 Vol.

<1%

icon for Valderi Garcia

Valderi Garcia

$245 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from early August places Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) as the clear leader for one Senate seat in Mato Grosso do Sul, with Capitão Contar (PL) consistently ranking second or tied for second behind him at 19-25% in consolidated vote scenarios across multiple surveys. This positioning, combined with Contar’s party nomination and prior strong electoral performance, has driven trader consensus toward him for second place ahead of Vander Loubet (PT) and others. The October 4, 2026, election remains weeks away, leaving room for shifts from campaign events or turnout dynamics among the roughly ten registered candidates. Market pricing for lower-probability names like Soraya Thronicke or Reinaldo Azambuja reflects their weaker current survey placement for the second spot.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$6,014
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from early August places Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) as the clear leader for one Senate seat in Mato Grosso do Sul, with Capitão Contar (PL) consistently ranking second or tied for second behind him at 19-25% in consolidated vote scenarios across multiple surveys. This positioning, combined with Contar’s party nomination and prior strong electoral performance, has driven trader consensus toward him for second place ahead of Vander Loubet (PT) and others. The October 4, 2026, election remains weeks away, leaving room for shifts from campaign events or turnout dynamics among the roughly ten registered candidates. Market pricing for lower-probability names like Soraya Thronicke or Reinaldo Azambuja reflects their weaker current survey placement for the second spot.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$6,014
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Mato Grosso do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Capitão Contar" at 66%, followed by "Vander Loubet" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 66¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Mato Grosso do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Mato Grosso do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Mato Grosso do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place" is "Capitão Contar" at 66%, meaning the market assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Vander Loubet" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Mato Grosso do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.