**Current forecasts from multiple models place Zhengzhou's overnight low for August 25, 2026, at or above 25°C, aligning with the market's 98.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Subtropical summer conditions, driven by regional high pressure and high humidity (often 70-90%), limit nighttime radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures elevated compared to historical August averages of 22-23°C. Official and ensemble guidance, including runs showing 25-27°C lows amid partly cloudy skies and light winds, supports trader consensus on this warm baseline. Recent developments include persistent monsoon moisture and scattered showers that further suppress cooling, with no incoming cold fronts or clear-sky anomalies noted in the latest model updates. Historical extremes for the date are far colder but not representative of the current pattern. A realistic challenge would require a sharp, unforecast drop—such as unexpected clear skies enabling stronger radiational cooling or a model shift introducing cooler air—but consensus across sources makes this improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Zhengzhou on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Zhengzhou on August 25?
25°C or higher 99%
24°C 21%
23°C <1%
15°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
21%
25°C or higher
99%
25°C or higher 99%
24°C 21%
23°C <1%
15°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
15°C or below
$224 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$417 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$224 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$182 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$224 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$337 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$224 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$217 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$435 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$160 Vol.
21%
25°C or higher
$339 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models place Zhengzhou's overnight low for August 25, 2026, at or above 25°C, aligning with the market's 98.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Subtropical summer conditions, driven by regional high pressure and high humidity (often 70-90%), limit nighttime radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures elevated compared to historical August averages of 22-23°C. Official and ensemble guidance, including runs showing 25-27°C lows amid partly cloudy skies and light winds, supports trader consensus on this warm baseline.
Recent developments include persistent monsoon moisture and scattered showers that further suppress cooling, with no incoming cold fronts or clear-sky anomalies noted in the latest model updates. Historical extremes for the date are far colder but not representative of the current pattern.
A realistic challenge would require a sharp, unforecast drop—such as unexpected clear skies enabling stronger radiational cooling or a model shift introducing cooler air—but consensus across sources makes this improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$2,982End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models place Zhengzhou's overnight low for August 25, 2026, at or above 25°C, aligning with the market's 98.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Subtropical summer conditions, driven by regional high pressure and high humidity (often 70-90%), limit nighttime radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures elevated compared to historical August averages of 22-23°C. Official and ensemble guidance, including runs showing 25-27°C lows amid partly cloudy skies and light winds, supports trader consensus on this warm baseline.
Recent developments include persistent monsoon moisture and scattered showers that further suppress cooling, with no incoming cold fronts or clear-sky anomalies noted in the latest model updates. Historical extremes for the date are far colder but not representative of the current pattern.
A realistic challenge would require a sharp, unforecast drop—such as unexpected clear skies enabling stronger radiational cooling or a model shift introducing cooler air—but consensus across sources makes this improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,982End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from multiple models place Zhengzhou's overnight low for August 25, 2026, at or above 25°C, aligning with the market's 98.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Subtropical summer conditions, driven by regional high pressure and high humidity (often 70-90%), limit nighttime radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures elevated compared to historical August averages of 22-23°C. Official and ensemble guidance, including runs showing 25-27°C lows amid partly cloudy skies and light winds, supports trader consensus on this warm baseline. Recent developments include persistent monsoon moisture and scattered showers that further suppress cooling, with no incoming cold fronts or clear-sky anomalies noted in the latest model updates. Historical extremes for the date are far colder but not representative of the current pattern. A realistic challenge would require a sharp, unforecast drop—such as unexpected clear skies enabling stronger radiational cooling or a model shift introducing cooler air—but consensus across sources makes this improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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