Recent polling from late August shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading overall Senate vote intentions in the Distrito Federal at 25%, leaving second place contested amid high undecided rates exceeding 18% in stimulated scenarios and far higher spontaneously. Leila do Vôlei benefits from incumbency and name recognition as she seeks re-election, while Erika Kokay and Bia Kicis draw support from distinct partisan bases—PT and PL respectively—under Brazil's dual-vote system that requires selecting two different candidates. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects these dynamics, with limited recent shifts in positioning ahead of the October 4 election and potential for volatility from late campaign consolidation or turnout among undecided blocs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLeila do Vôlei 44%
Erika Kokay 22%
Bia Kicis 16%
Michelle Bolsonaro 14.6%
$28,124 Vol.
$28,124 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Leila do Vôlei
44%
Erika Kokay
22%
Bia Kicis
16%
Michelle Bolsonaro
15%
David Horn
<1%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Marley
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Leila do Vôlei 44%
Erika Kokay 22%
Bia Kicis 16%
Michelle Bolsonaro 14.6%
$28,124 Vol.
$28,124 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Leila do Vôlei
$7,007 Vol.
44%
Erika Kokay
$4,707 Vol.
22%
Bia Kicis
$6,989 Vol.
16%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$3,780 Vol.
15%
David Horn
$1,801 Vol.
<1%
Avenir Rosa
$437 Vol.
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$381 Vol.
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$878 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$546 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$392 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$407 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$381 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$417 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading overall Senate vote intentions in the Distrito Federal at 25%, leaving second place contested amid high undecided rates exceeding 18% in stimulated scenarios and far higher spontaneously. Leila do Vôlei benefits from incumbency and name recognition as she seeks re-election, while Erika Kokay and Bia Kicis draw support from distinct partisan bases—PT and PL respectively—under Brazil's dual-vote system that requires selecting two different candidates. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects these dynamics, with limited recent shifts in positioning ahead of the October 4 election and potential for volatility from late campaign consolidation or turnout among undecided blocs.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$28,124End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading overall Senate vote intentions in the Distrito Federal at 25%, leaving second place contested amid high undecided rates exceeding 18% in stimulated scenarios and far higher spontaneously. Leila do Vôlei benefits from incumbency and name recognition as she seeks re-election, while Erika Kokay and Bia Kicis draw support from distinct partisan bases—PT and PL respectively—under Brazil's dual-vote system that requires selecting two different candidates. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects these dynamics, with limited recent shifts in positioning ahead of the October 4 election and potential for volatility from late campaign consolidation or turnout among undecided blocs.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$28,124End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from late August shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading overall Senate vote intentions in the Distrito Federal at 25%, leaving second place contested amid high undecided rates exceeding 18% in stimulated scenarios and far higher spontaneously. Leila do Vôlei benefits from incumbency and name recognition as she seeks re-election, while Erika Kokay and Bia Kicis draw support from distinct partisan bases—PT and PL respectively—under Brazil's dual-vote system that requires selecting two different candidates. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects these dynamics, with limited recent shifts in positioning ahead of the October 4 election and potential for volatility from late campaign consolidation or turnout among undecided blocs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions