The Espírito Santo Senate race features two seats, with Renato Casagrande holding a clear lead in recent polling for first place. Trader pricing for second place remains tightly clustered among Sergio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, Fabiano Contarato, and Maguinha Malta, reflecting a fragmented field of experienced state and federal politicians. Multiple July 2026 surveys show these contenders within or near the margin of error in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios, with no dominant alternative emerging after Hartung's positioning fluctuated across tests. Incumbency advantages for Contarato and Marcos do Val have not translated into stronger support, while party coalitions and regional name recognition continue to shape voter preferences without decisive shifts. Late-campaign events, endorsements, or turnout patterns among key blocs could still reorder the lower standings before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSergio Meneguelli 39%
Fabiano Contarato 21.3%
Rose de Freitas 16.9%
Maguinha Malta 7.7%
$17,808 Vol.
$17,808 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Meneguelli
39%
Fabiano Contarato
21%
Rose de Freitas
17%
Maguinha Malta
8%
Evair de Melo
3%
Renato Casagrande
2%
Callegari
2%
Leonardo Monjardim
1%
Marcos do Val
1%
Rodney Miranda
<1%
Professor Fabian
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli 39%
Fabiano Contarato 21.3%
Rose de Freitas 16.9%
Maguinha Malta 7.7%
$17,808 Vol.
$17,808 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Meneguelli
$12,438 Vol.
39%
Fabiano Contarato
$2,496 Vol.
21%
Rose de Freitas
$756 Vol.
17%
Maguinha Malta
$319 Vol.
8%
Evair de Melo
$371 Vol.
3%
Renato Casagrande
$229 Vol.
2%
Callegari
$398 Vol.
2%
Leonardo Monjardim
$258 Vol.
1%
Marcos do Val
$205 Vol.
1%
Rodney Miranda
$139 Vol.
<1%
Professor Fabian
$201 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Espírito Santo Senate race features two seats, with Renato Casagrande holding a clear lead in recent polling for first place. Trader pricing for second place remains tightly clustered among Sergio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, Fabiano Contarato, and Maguinha Malta, reflecting a fragmented field of experienced state and federal politicians. Multiple July 2026 surveys show these contenders within or near the margin of error in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios, with no dominant alternative emerging after Hartung's positioning fluctuated across tests. Incumbency advantages for Contarato and Marcos do Val have not translated into stronger support, while party coalitions and regional name recognition continue to shape voter preferences without decisive shifts. Late-campaign events, endorsements, or turnout patterns among key blocs could still reorder the lower standings before the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Volume
$17,808End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Espírito Santo Senate race features two seats, with Renato Casagrande holding a clear lead in recent polling for first place. Trader pricing for second place remains tightly clustered among Sergio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, Fabiano Contarato, and Maguinha Malta, reflecting a fragmented field of experienced state and federal politicians. Multiple July 2026 surveys show these contenders within or near the margin of error in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios, with no dominant alternative emerging after Hartung's positioning fluctuated across tests. Incumbency advantages for Contarato and Marcos do Val have not translated into stronger support, while party coalitions and regional name recognition continue to shape voter preferences without decisive shifts. Late-campaign events, endorsements, or turnout patterns among key blocs could still reorder the lower standings before the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$17,808End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Espírito Santo Senate race features two seats, with Renato Casagrande holding a clear lead in recent polling for first place. Trader pricing for second place remains tightly clustered among Sergio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, Fabiano Contarato, and Maguinha Malta, reflecting a fragmented field of experienced state and federal politicians. Multiple July 2026 surveys show these contenders within or near the margin of error in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios, with no dominant alternative emerging after Hartung's positioning fluctuated across tests. Incumbency advantages for Contarato and Marcos do Val have not translated into stronger support, while party coalitions and regional name recognition continue to shape voter preferences without decisive shifts. Late-campaign events, endorsements, or turnout patterns among key blocs could still reorder the lower standings before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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