Lula maintains a commanding position in Piauí for the 2026 first-round presidential vote, with recent Datafolha and AtlasIntel surveys showing him at 60-64% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 15-19% and all other candidates in low single digits. This aligns with Piauí's consistent status as one of the president's strongest Northeastern strongholds, where he captured roughly 74-77% in 2022 rounds amid broad regional support for PT-linked social policies and local alliances. Traders assign Lula over 95% implied probability of finishing first, reflecting the wide polling gap and limited opposition infrastructure in the state. A significant late-campaign shift from economic discontent, unexpected alliances, or turnout changes among undecided voters could narrow margins, though current evidence points to structural advantages sustaining the lead through October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 95.4%
Samara <1%
Flavio Bolsonaro <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$10,909 Vol.
$10,909 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
95%
Samara
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 95.4%
Samara <1%
Flavio Bolsonaro <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$10,909 Vol.
$10,909 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$6,404 Vol.
95%
Samara
$272 Vol.
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$368 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$408 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$342 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$436 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$352 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$437 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$433 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$342 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$342 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$342 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$432 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Piauí for the 2026 first-round presidential vote, with recent Datafolha and AtlasIntel surveys showing him at 60-64% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 15-19% and all other candidates in low single digits. This aligns with Piauí's consistent status as one of the president's strongest Northeastern strongholds, where he captured roughly 74-77% in 2022 rounds amid broad regional support for PT-linked social policies and local alliances. Traders assign Lula over 95% implied probability of finishing first, reflecting the wide polling gap and limited opposition infrastructure in the state. A significant late-campaign shift from economic discontent, unexpected alliances, or turnout changes among undecided voters could narrow margins, though current evidence points to structural advantages sustaining the lead through October.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ET
Volume
$10,909End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Piauí for the 2026 first-round presidential vote, with recent Datafolha and AtlasIntel surveys showing him at 60-64% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 15-19% and all other candidates in low single digits. This aligns with Piauí's consistent status as one of the president's strongest Northeastern strongholds, where he captured roughly 74-77% in 2022 rounds amid broad regional support for PT-linked social policies and local alliances. Traders assign Lula over 95% implied probability of finishing first, reflecting the wide polling gap and limited opposition infrastructure in the state. A significant late-campaign shift from economic discontent, unexpected alliances, or turnout changes among undecided voters could narrow margins, though current evidence points to structural advantages sustaining the lead through October.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$10,909End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding position in Piauí for the 2026 first-round presidential vote, with recent Datafolha and AtlasIntel surveys showing him at 60-64% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 15-19% and all other candidates in low single digits. This aligns with Piauí's consistent status as one of the president's strongest Northeastern strongholds, where he captured roughly 74-77% in 2022 rounds amid broad regional support for PT-linked social policies and local alliances. Traders assign Lula over 95% implied probability of finishing first, reflecting the wide polling gap and limited opposition infrastructure in the state. A significant late-campaign shift from economic discontent, unexpected alliances, or turnout changes among undecided voters could narrow margins, though current evidence points to structural advantages sustaining the lead through October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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