Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election first round, driven by consistent polling advantages of 7–18 points over Flávio Bolsonaro and larger margins against fragmented opponents such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema. Recent surveys, including AtlasIntel (mid-August) and Quaest (July), show Lula at 38–49% of voting intentions in the state, supported by roughly 50% approval for his administration and stronger performance among northern voters compared to national trends. The first-round structure, combined with low single-digit showings for most challengers and limited undecided movement in the final weeks before the October vote, reinforces trader consensus on his position. Late developments such as major campaign events, shifts in local alliances, or turnout changes in key Amazonian municipalities could still narrow the gap, though current data indicate substantial barriers to overtaking the frontrunner.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 95%
Flavio Bolsonaro 4.3%
Ronaldo Caiado 1.4%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
$12,761 Vol.
$12,761 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
95%
Flavio Bolsonaro
4%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Zema
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Lula 95%
Flavio Bolsonaro 4.3%
Ronaldo Caiado 1.4%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
$12,761 Vol.
$12,761 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$6,953 Vol.
95%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$771 Vol.
4%
Ronaldo Caiado
$313 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$533 Vol.
1%
Zema
$406 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$463 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$474 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$424 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$526 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$426 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$539 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$407 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$525 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election first round, driven by consistent polling advantages of 7–18 points over Flávio Bolsonaro and larger margins against fragmented opponents such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema. Recent surveys, including AtlasIntel (mid-August) and Quaest (July), show Lula at 38–49% of voting intentions in the state, supported by roughly 50% approval for his administration and stronger performance among northern voters compared to national trends. The first-round structure, combined with low single-digit showings for most challengers and limited undecided movement in the final weeks before the October vote, reinforces trader consensus on his position. Late developments such as major campaign events, shifts in local alliances, or turnout changes in key Amazonian municipalities could still narrow the gap, though current data indicate substantial barriers to overtaking the frontrunner.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$12,761End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election first round, driven by consistent polling advantages of 7–18 points over Flávio Bolsonaro and larger margins against fragmented opponents such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema. Recent surveys, including AtlasIntel (mid-August) and Quaest (July), show Lula at 38–49% of voting intentions in the state, supported by roughly 50% approval for his administration and stronger performance among northern voters compared to national trends. The first-round structure, combined with low single-digit showings for most challengers and limited undecided movement in the final weeks before the October vote, reinforces trader consensus on his position. Late developments such as major campaign events, shifts in local alliances, or turnout changes in key Amazonian municipalities could still narrow the gap, though current data indicate substantial barriers to overtaking the frontrunner.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$12,761End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election first round, driven by consistent polling advantages of 7–18 points over Flávio Bolsonaro and larger margins against fragmented opponents such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema. Recent surveys, including AtlasIntel (mid-August) and Quaest (July), show Lula at 38–49% of voting intentions in the state, supported by roughly 50% approval for his administration and stronger performance among northern voters compared to national trends. The first-round structure, combined with low single-digit showings for most challengers and limited undecided movement in the final weeks before the October vote, reinforces trader consensus on his position. Late developments such as major campaign events, shifts in local alliances, or turnout changes in key Amazonian municipalities could still narrow the gap, though current data indicate substantial barriers to overtaking the frontrunner.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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