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Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso

Flavio Bolsonaro 95%

Lula 3.0%

Zema <1%

Hertz Dias <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Flavio Bolsonaro 95%

Lula 3.0%

Zema <1%

Hertz Dias <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$2,761 Vol.

95%

icon for Lula

Lula

$1,328 Vol.

3%

icon for Zema

Zema

$481 Vol.

1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$274 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$332 Vol.

1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$278 Vol.

1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$358 Vol.

1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$373 Vol.

1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$327 Vol.

1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$248 Vol.

1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$291 Vol.

1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$365 Vol.

1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$284 Vol.

1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding 94.5% implied probability in trader pricing for first place in Mato Grosso's October 4, 2026, presidential first-round vote, reflecting the state's conservative, agribusiness-heavy electorate and consolidation of right-wing support behind the Liberal Party nominee endorsed by his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. Recent national polling shows Bolsonaro trailing incumbent Lula overall but performing strongly in interior and center-west regions aligned with his platform on rural policy and economic issues. Other candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, register minimal shares. Late developments such as campaign events, targeted advertising, or shifts in turnout among key voting blocs could narrow the margin, though structural regional preferences make a reversal unlikely absent major disruption.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,700
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding 94.5% implied probability in trader pricing for first place in Mato Grosso's October 4, 2026, presidential first-round vote, reflecting the state's conservative, agribusiness-heavy electorate and consolidation of right-wing support behind the Liberal Party nominee endorsed by his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. Recent national polling shows Bolsonaro trailing incumbent Lula overall but performing strongly in interior and center-west regions aligned with his platform on rural policy and economic issues. Other candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, register minimal shares. Late developments such as campaign events, targeted advertising, or shifts in turnout among key voting blocs could narrow the margin, though structural regional preferences make a reversal unlikely absent major disruption.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,700
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related

icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?

90%
icon for Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?

Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?

88%
icon for Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Maranhão?

Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Maranhão?

96%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 95%, followed by "Lula" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lula" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.