The Alagoas Senate race for two seats remains highly competitive, with recent Quaest polling (late August 2026) showing Arthur Lira (PP) at 20%, Renan Calheiros (MDB) at 18%, and Marina JHC (PSDB) at 15% in combined first- and second-choice support—statistically tied within the 3-point margin of error amid 19% undecided and 12% blank/null responses. Trader pricing reflects this fragmentation, with Renan leading implied probabilities followed closely by Lira and the newer entrant Marina JHC, whose surge draws on her husband JHC’s gubernatorial strength and local name recognition. Longstanding rivalry between the Calheiros and Lira political groups, strategic ticket-splitting by voters, and lingering undecided blocs sustain the tight contest. Further separation could emerge from October campaign dynamics, formal alliances, resolution of any registration challenges, or shifts tied to the parallel gubernatorial race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRenan 35%
Arthur Lira 25%
Marina JHC 19.1%
Alexandre Fleming 3.3%
$10,089 Vol.
$10,089 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Renan
35%
Arthur Lira
25%
Marina JHC
19%
Alexandre Fleming
3%
Dr. Wanderley
3%
Mariedson
<1%
Davi Davino Filho
<1%
Renan 35%
Arthur Lira 25%
Marina JHC 19.1%
Alexandre Fleming 3.3%
$10,089 Vol.
$10,089 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Renan
$3,278 Vol.
35%
Arthur Lira
$5,050 Vol.
25%
Marina JHC
$373 Vol.
19%
Alexandre Fleming
$348 Vol.
3%
Dr. Wanderley
$419 Vol.
3%
Mariedson
$358 Vol.
<1%
Davi Davino Filho
$263 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Alagoas Senate race for two seats remains highly competitive, with recent Quaest polling (late August 2026) showing Arthur Lira (PP) at 20%, Renan Calheiros (MDB) at 18%, and Marina JHC (PSDB) at 15% in combined first- and second-choice support—statistically tied within the 3-point margin of error amid 19% undecided and 12% blank/null responses. Trader pricing reflects this fragmentation, with Renan leading implied probabilities followed closely by Lira and the newer entrant Marina JHC, whose surge draws on her husband JHC’s gubernatorial strength and local name recognition. Longstanding rivalry between the Calheiros and Lira political groups, strategic ticket-splitting by voters, and lingering undecided blocs sustain the tight contest. Further separation could emerge from October campaign dynamics, formal alliances, resolution of any registration challenges, or shifts tied to the parallel gubernatorial race.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ET
Volume
$10,089End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Alagoas Senate race for two seats remains highly competitive, with recent Quaest polling (late August 2026) showing Arthur Lira (PP) at 20%, Renan Calheiros (MDB) at 18%, and Marina JHC (PSDB) at 15% in combined first- and second-choice support—statistically tied within the 3-point margin of error amid 19% undecided and 12% blank/null responses. Trader pricing reflects this fragmentation, with Renan leading implied probabilities followed closely by Lira and the newer entrant Marina JHC, whose surge draws on her husband JHC’s gubernatorial strength and local name recognition. Longstanding rivalry between the Calheiros and Lira political groups, strategic ticket-splitting by voters, and lingering undecided blocs sustain the tight contest. Further separation could emerge from October campaign dynamics, formal alliances, resolution of any registration challenges, or shifts tied to the parallel gubernatorial race.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$10,089End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Alagoas Senate race for two seats remains highly competitive, with recent Quaest polling (late August 2026) showing Arthur Lira (PP) at 20%, Renan Calheiros (MDB) at 18%, and Marina JHC (PSDB) at 15% in combined first- and second-choice support—statistically tied within the 3-point margin of error amid 19% undecided and 12% blank/null responses. Trader pricing reflects this fragmentation, with Renan leading implied probabilities followed closely by Lira and the newer entrant Marina JHC, whose surge draws on her husband JHC’s gubernatorial strength and local name recognition. Longstanding rivalry between the Calheiros and Lira political groups, strategic ticket-splitting by voters, and lingering undecided blocs sustain the tight contest. Further separation could emerge from October campaign dynamics, formal alliances, resolution of any registration challenges, or shifts tied to the parallel gubernatorial race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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