Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the Republicanos incumbent, with recent August 2026 surveys from Datafolha and RealTime Big Data showing him at 45–52% in first-round simulations against Fernando Haddad’s 27–37%. These margins point to a potential outright victory on October 4, supported by roughly 63% approval of his administration and the earlier withdrawal of rivals such as Kim Kataguiri that consolidated the field. Haddad, running with Márcio França as vice on the PT ticket, remains the clearest alternative but trails consistently in both spontaneous and stimulated polling. Minor candidates including Erika Hilton register negligible support. While late-campaign developments or turnout shifts could narrow the gap, the scale of the current polling advantage makes significant movement unlikely before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTarcísio de Freitas 97.1%
Fernando Haddad 2.8%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$291,194 Vol.
$291,194 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
97%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 97.1%
Fernando Haddad 2.8%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$291,194 Vol.
$291,194 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$133,036 Vol.
97%
Fernando Haddad
$48,097 Vol.
3%
Erika Hilton
$22,865 Vol.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$76,528 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the Republicanos incumbent, with recent August 2026 surveys from Datafolha and RealTime Big Data showing him at 45–52% in first-round simulations against Fernando Haddad’s 27–37%. These margins point to a potential outright victory on October 4, supported by roughly 63% approval of his administration and the earlier withdrawal of rivals such as Kim Kataguiri that consolidated the field. Haddad, running with Márcio França as vice on the PT ticket, remains the clearest alternative but trails consistently in both spontaneous and stimulated polling. Minor candidates including Erika Hilton register negligible support. While late-campaign developments or turnout shifts could narrow the gap, the scale of the current polling advantage makes significant movement unlikely before election day.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$291,194End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the Republicanos incumbent, with recent August 2026 surveys from Datafolha and RealTime Big Data showing him at 45–52% in first-round simulations against Fernando Haddad’s 27–37%. These margins point to a potential outright victory on October 4, supported by roughly 63% approval of his administration and the earlier withdrawal of rivals such as Kim Kataguiri that consolidated the field. Haddad, running with Márcio França as vice on the PT ticket, remains the clearest alternative but trails consistently in both spontaneous and stimulated polling. Minor candidates including Erika Hilton register negligible support. While late-campaign developments or turnout shifts could narrow the gap, the scale of the current polling advantage makes significant movement unlikely before election day.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$291,194End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the Republicanos incumbent, with recent August 2026 surveys from Datafolha and RealTime Big Data showing him at 45–52% in first-round simulations against Fernando Haddad’s 27–37%. These margins point to a potential outright victory on October 4, supported by roughly 63% approval of his administration and the earlier withdrawal of rivals such as Kim Kataguiri that consolidated the field. Haddad, running with Márcio França as vice on the PT ticket, remains the clearest alternative but trails consistently in both spontaneous and stimulated polling. Minor candidates including Erika Hilton register negligible support. While late-campaign developments or turnout shifts could narrow the gap, the scale of the current polling advantage makes significant movement unlikely before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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