Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking re-election, holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the October 4, 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial contest, reflecting his established name recognition, administrative record, and consistent advantages in multiple registered polls. Recent surveys from institutes including CTAS, Veritá, and IFP show him ahead in stimulated first-round scenarios, often by double digits in valid-vote projections that exclude undecideds, while Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos), the primary challenger and former Itabaiana mayor, trails significantly. Minor candidates such as Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), Dr. Helton (PSOL), and Taty Cristina (DC) register minimal support, limiting vote fragmentation risks. Mixed August polling results and high undecided shares introduce some uncertainty, but the current consensus pricing aligns with Fábio’s structural position as the frontrunner ahead of the first-round ballot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFábio 74%
Valmir de Francisquinho 22%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$10,848 Vol.
$10,848 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Fábio
74%
Valmir de Francisquinho
22%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
1%
Emanuel Cacho
1%
Dr. Helton
<1%
Ricardo Marques
<1%
Fábio 74%
Valmir de Francisquinho 22%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$10,848 Vol.
$10,848 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Fábio
$8,247 Vol.
74%
Valmir de Francisquinho
$941 Vol.
22%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
$410 Vol.
1%
Emanuel Cacho
$391 Vol.
1%
Dr. Helton
$455 Vol.
<1%
Ricardo Marques
$404 Vol.
<1%
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking re-election, holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the October 4, 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial contest, reflecting his established name recognition, administrative record, and consistent advantages in multiple registered polls. Recent surveys from institutes including CTAS, Veritá, and IFP show him ahead in stimulated first-round scenarios, often by double digits in valid-vote projections that exclude undecideds, while Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos), the primary challenger and former Itabaiana mayor, trails significantly. Minor candidates such as Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), Dr. Helton (PSOL), and Taty Cristina (DC) register minimal support, limiting vote fragmentation risks. Mixed August polling results and high undecided shares introduce some uncertainty, but the current consensus pricing aligns with Fábio’s structural position as the frontrunner ahead of the first-round ballot.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$10,848End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking re-election, holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the October 4, 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial contest, reflecting his established name recognition, administrative record, and consistent advantages in multiple registered polls. Recent surveys from institutes including CTAS, Veritá, and IFP show him ahead in stimulated first-round scenarios, often by double digits in valid-vote projections that exclude undecideds, while Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos), the primary challenger and former Itabaiana mayor, trails significantly. Minor candidates such as Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), Dr. Helton (PSOL), and Taty Cristina (DC) register minimal support, limiting vote fragmentation risks. Mixed August polling results and high undecided shares introduce some uncertainty, but the current consensus pricing aligns with Fábio’s structural position as the frontrunner ahead of the first-round ballot.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$10,848End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking re-election, holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the October 4, 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial contest, reflecting his established name recognition, administrative record, and consistent advantages in multiple registered polls. Recent surveys from institutes including CTAS, Veritá, and IFP show him ahead in stimulated first-round scenarios, often by double digits in valid-vote projections that exclude undecideds, while Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos), the primary challenger and former Itabaiana mayor, trails significantly. Minor candidates such as Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), Dr. Helton (PSOL), and Taty Cristina (DC) register minimal support, limiting vote fragmentation risks. Mixed August polling results and high undecided shares introduce some uncertainty, but the current consensus pricing aligns with Fábio’s structural position as the frontrunner ahead of the first-round ballot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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