Recent polling from Datafolha released August 21 shows Benedita da Silva (PT) leading voter intentions for the Rio de Janeiro Senate seats at 15%, ahead of a fragmented field where Carlos Jordy and Carlos Portinho (both PL) stand at 8% and Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and Mônica Benício (PSOL) sit at 6% each. High shares of undecided and blank or null votes keep the contest open. Traders assign her the highest probability for first place while spreading odds more evenly across rivals, reflecting the two-seat structure, limited name recognition consolidation, and absence of major campaign turning points since the July Quaest survey. Scheduled registration deadlines and further polling releases through September could shift positioning ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBenedita da Silva 55%
Carlos Jordy 30%
Marcelo Crivella 6.3%
Carlos Portinho 3.7%
$26,855 Vol.
$26,855 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Benedita da Silva
55%
Carlos Jordy
30%
Marcelo Crivella
6%
Carlos Portinho
4%
Pedro Paulo
3%
Marcos Dias
<1%
Monica Benicio
<1%
Ó Clemente
<1%
Paula Falcão
<1%
Waguinho
<1%
André Monteiro
<1%
Helio Secco
<1%
Luciano Mattos
<1%
Luiz Eugenio
<1%
Michelly Xavier
<1%
Vinicius Benevides
<1%
Benedita da Silva 55%
Carlos Jordy 30%
Marcelo Crivella 6.3%
Carlos Portinho 3.7%
$26,855 Vol.
$26,855 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Benedita da Silva
$8,268 Vol.
55%
Carlos Jordy
$5,099 Vol.
30%
Marcelo Crivella
$1,124 Vol.
6%
Carlos Portinho
$2,542 Vol.
4%
Pedro Paulo
$1,764 Vol.
3%
Marcos Dias
$807 Vol.
<1%
Monica Benicio
$785 Vol.
<1%
Ó Clemente
$1,242 Vol.
<1%
Paula Falcão
$778 Vol.
<1%
Waguinho
$680 Vol.
<1%
André Monteiro
$816 Vol.
<1%
Helio Secco
$490 Vol.
<1%
Luciano Mattos
$375 Vol.
<1%
Luiz Eugenio
$763 Vol.
<1%
Michelly Xavier
$671 Vol.
<1%
Vinicius Benevides
$649 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha released August 21 shows Benedita da Silva (PT) leading voter intentions for the Rio de Janeiro Senate seats at 15%, ahead of a fragmented field where Carlos Jordy and Carlos Portinho (both PL) stand at 8% and Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and Mônica Benício (PSOL) sit at 6% each. High shares of undecided and blank or null votes keep the contest open. Traders assign her the highest probability for first place while spreading odds more evenly across rivals, reflecting the two-seat structure, limited name recognition consolidation, and absence of major campaign turning points since the July Quaest survey. Scheduled registration deadlines and further polling releases through September could shift positioning ahead of the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ET
Volume
$26,855End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha released August 21 shows Benedita da Silva (PT) leading voter intentions for the Rio de Janeiro Senate seats at 15%, ahead of a fragmented field where Carlos Jordy and Carlos Portinho (both PL) stand at 8% and Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and Mônica Benício (PSOL) sit at 6% each. High shares of undecided and blank or null votes keep the contest open. Traders assign her the highest probability for first place while spreading odds more evenly across rivals, reflecting the two-seat structure, limited name recognition consolidation, and absence of major campaign turning points since the July Quaest survey. Scheduled registration deadlines and further polling releases through September could shift positioning ahead of the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$26,855End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Datafolha released August 21 shows Benedita da Silva (PT) leading voter intentions for the Rio de Janeiro Senate seats at 15%, ahead of a fragmented field where Carlos Jordy and Carlos Portinho (both PL) stand at 8% and Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and Mônica Benício (PSOL) sit at 6% each. High shares of undecided and blank or null votes keep the contest open. Traders assign her the highest probability for first place while spreading odds more evenly across rivals, reflecting the two-seat structure, limited name recognition consolidation, and absence of major campaign turning points since the July Quaest survey. Scheduled registration deadlines and further polling releases through September could shift positioning ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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