Recent polling in Paraná shows a tight contest for the top Senate spot, with Alexandre Curi, Deltan Dallagnol, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Filipe Barros clustered near the front amid 28% or higher undecided voters and even larger shares in spontaneous responses. High indecision, overlapping regional bases, and the two-seat structure keep first-place probabilities closely matched in trader assessments. A favorable Ministério Público Eleitoral opinion on Dallagnol’s eligibility in mid-August added visibility without shifting the balance decisively. Further separation could emerge from September-October campaign events, party alliances, turnout mobilization in key regions, or late shifts among undecided voters ahead of the October 2026 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDeltan Dallagnol 38%
Alexandre Curi 29%
Filipe Barros 28%
Cristina Reis Graeml 4.5%
$18,072 Vol.
$18,072 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Deltan Dallagnol
38%
Alexandre Curi
29%
Filipe Barros
24%
Cristina Reis Graeml
5%
Gleisi
4%
Marcelo Marcelino
4%
Karen Guerreiro
3%
Joaquim do MLB
2%
Dr. Rosinha
1%
Deltan Dallagnol 38%
Alexandre Curi 29%
Filipe Barros 28%
Cristina Reis Graeml 4.5%
$18,072 Vol.
$18,072 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Deltan Dallagnol
$12,216 Vol.
38%
Alexandre Curi
$2,422 Vol.
29%
Filipe Barros
$1,825 Vol.
24%
Cristina Reis Graeml
$194 Vol.
5%
Gleisi
$449 Vol.
4%
Marcelo Marcelino
$384 Vol.
4%
Karen Guerreiro
$329 Vol.
3%
Joaquim do MLB
$219 Vol.
2%
Dr. Rosinha
$188 Vol.
1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Paraná shows a tight contest for the top Senate spot, with Alexandre Curi, Deltan Dallagnol, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Filipe Barros clustered near the front amid 28% or higher undecided voters and even larger shares in spontaneous responses. High indecision, overlapping regional bases, and the two-seat structure keep first-place probabilities closely matched in trader assessments. A favorable Ministério Público Eleitoral opinion on Dallagnol’s eligibility in mid-August added visibility without shifting the balance decisively. Further separation could emerge from September-October campaign events, party alliances, turnout mobilization in key regions, or late shifts among undecided voters ahead of the October 2026 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ET
Volume
$18,072End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Paraná shows a tight contest for the top Senate spot, with Alexandre Curi, Deltan Dallagnol, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Filipe Barros clustered near the front amid 28% or higher undecided voters and even larger shares in spontaneous responses. High indecision, overlapping regional bases, and the two-seat structure keep first-place probabilities closely matched in trader assessments. A favorable Ministério Público Eleitoral opinion on Dallagnol’s eligibility in mid-August added visibility without shifting the balance decisively. Further separation could emerge from September-October campaign events, party alliances, turnout mobilization in key regions, or late shifts among undecided voters ahead of the October 2026 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$18,072End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in Paraná shows a tight contest for the top Senate spot, with Alexandre Curi, Deltan Dallagnol, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Filipe Barros clustered near the front amid 28% or higher undecided voters and even larger shares in spontaneous responses. High indecision, overlapping regional bases, and the two-seat structure keep first-place probabilities closely matched in trader assessments. A favorable Ministério Público Eleitoral opinion on Dallagnol’s eligibility in mid-August added visibility without shifting the balance decisively. Further separation could emerge from September-October campaign events, party alliances, turnout mobilization in key regions, or late shifts among undecided voters ahead of the October 2026 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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