Helder Barbalho (MDB), the term-limited former governor of Pará, holds an 88% implied probability for first place in the October 4, 2026, Senate election, reflecting consistent leads in recent polls. Surveys from June through mid-August, including AtlasIntel (24%) and Genial/Quaest (21%), show him ahead of rivals such as Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) and Zequinha Marinho (Podemos), with others trailing in single digits or lower. His position stems from name recognition, MDB party structure, and voter preference for the leading option in a dual-seat contest where undecided shares remain elevated. No major late developments have altered this positioning, though the race for second place stays fragmented among center and center-right candidates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHelder 86%
Gizelle Freitas 5.2%
Edlaine Rodrigues 4.3%
Delegado Éder Mauro 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Helder
86%
Gizelle Freitas
5%
Edlaine Rodrigues
4%
Delegado Éder Mauro
2%
Breno Guimarães
1%
Zequinha Marinho
1%
Fernanda Lopes
1%
Conti
1%
Celso Sabino
1%
Chicão
1%
Willem da Silva
1%
Helder 86%
Gizelle Freitas 5.2%
Edlaine Rodrigues 4.3%
Delegado Éder Mauro 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Helder
$5,922 Vol.
86%
Gizelle Freitas
$330 Vol.
5%
Edlaine Rodrigues
$349 Vol.
4%
Delegado Éder Mauro
$403 Vol.
2%
Breno Guimarães
$342 Vol.
1%
Zequinha Marinho
$287 Vol.
1%
Fernanda Lopes
$327 Vol.
1%
Conti
$413 Vol.
1%
Celso Sabino
$287 Vol.
1%
Chicão
$286 Vol.
1%
Willem da Silva
$339 Vol.
1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Helder Barbalho (MDB), the term-limited former governor of Pará, holds an 88% implied probability for first place in the October 4, 2026, Senate election, reflecting consistent leads in recent polls. Surveys from June through mid-August, including AtlasIntel (24%) and Genial/Quaest (21%), show him ahead of rivals such as Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) and Zequinha Marinho (Podemos), with others trailing in single digits or lower. His position stems from name recognition, MDB party structure, and voter preference for the leading option in a dual-seat contest where undecided shares remain elevated. No major late developments have altered this positioning, though the race for second place stays fragmented among center and center-right candidates.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$9,286End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Helder Barbalho (MDB), the term-limited former governor of Pará, holds an 88% implied probability for first place in the October 4, 2026, Senate election, reflecting consistent leads in recent polls. Surveys from June through mid-August, including AtlasIntel (24%) and Genial/Quaest (21%), show him ahead of rivals such as Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) and Zequinha Marinho (Podemos), with others trailing in single digits or lower. His position stems from name recognition, MDB party structure, and voter preference for the leading option in a dual-seat contest where undecided shares remain elevated. No major late developments have altered this positioning, though the race for second place stays fragmented among center and center-right candidates.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$9,286End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Helder Barbalho (MDB), the term-limited former governor of Pará, holds an 88% implied probability for first place in the October 4, 2026, Senate election, reflecting consistent leads in recent polls. Surveys from June through mid-August, including AtlasIntel (24%) and Genial/Quaest (21%), show him ahead of rivals such as Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) and Zequinha Marinho (Podemos), with others trailing in single digits or lower. His position stems from name recognition, MDB party structure, and voter preference for the leading option in a dual-seat contest where undecided shares remain elevated. No major late developments have altered this positioning, though the race for second place stays fragmented among center and center-right candidates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions