Traders assign 100% implied probability to a 28°C low in Tokyo on August 25 because Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and multiple ensemble models consistently project overnight minima of 27–28°C under persistent southerly flow, high humidity near 75–80%, and limited radiative cooling from partly cloudy skies. Current observations at Tokyo stations show temperatures stabilizing above 28°C through the early morning hours, aligning with climatological August norms for the region. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects strong agreement across official guidance rather than speculation. An unexpected clearing trend or stronger nocturnal cooling could push the actual minimum lower, though such shifts remain unlikely given the established steering pattern and lack of frontal activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$16,105 Vol.
$16,105 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$16,105 Vol.
$16,105 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
$2,394 Vol.
No
22°C
$178 Vol.
No
23°C
$710 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,318 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,301 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,337 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,781 Vol.
No
28°C
$3,959 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$1,288 Vol.
No
30°C
$278 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$563 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign 100% implied probability to a 28°C low in Tokyo on August 25 because Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and multiple ensemble models consistently project overnight minima of 27–28°C under persistent southerly flow, high humidity near 75–80%, and limited radiative cooling from partly cloudy skies. Current observations at Tokyo stations show temperatures stabilizing above 28°C through the early morning hours, aligning with climatological August norms for the region. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects strong agreement across official guidance rather than speculation. An unexpected clearing trend or stronger nocturnal cooling could push the actual minimum lower, though such shifts remain unlikely given the established steering pattern and lack of frontal activity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$16,105End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign 100% implied probability to a 28°C low in Tokyo on August 25 because Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and multiple ensemble models consistently project overnight minima of 27–28°C under persistent southerly flow, high humidity near 75–80%, and limited radiative cooling from partly cloudy skies. Current observations at Tokyo stations show temperatures stabilizing above 28°C through the early morning hours, aligning with climatological August norms for the region. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects strong agreement across official guidance rather than speculation. An unexpected clearing trend or stronger nocturnal cooling could push the actual minimum lower, though such shifts remain unlikely given the established steering pattern and lack of frontal activity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,105End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders assign 100% implied probability to a 28°C low in Tokyo on August 25 because Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and multiple ensemble models consistently project overnight minima of 27–28°C under persistent southerly flow, high humidity near 75–80%, and limited radiative cooling from partly cloudy skies. Current observations at Tokyo stations show temperatures stabilizing above 28°C through the early morning hours, aligning with climatological August norms for the region. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects strong agreement across official guidance rather than speculation. An unexpected clearing trend or stronger nocturnal cooling could push the actual minimum lower, though such shifts remain unlikely given the established steering pattern and lack of frontal activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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