Forecast models from the National Weather Service indicate the strongest consensus for overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 60s°F on August 29 in New York City, aligning with the market's leading 66-67°F outcome at 36.5% implied probability. This reflects typical late-August climatology, where average minimum temperatures hover near 65°F, combined with current steering patterns favoring mild maritime air rather than stronger cold advection. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread, with some runs supporting 64-65°F or 68-69°F bins, while probabilities for sub-60°F readings remain lower due to limited historical analogs this time of year and stable high-pressure influence. Traders are monitoring the next model cycle for any shifts in boundary-layer cooling or dew-point trends ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 29?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 29?
68-69°F 49%
74°F or higher 48%
58-59°F 44%
62-63°F 44%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
55°F or below
22%
56-57°F
3%
58-59°F
44%
60-61°F
41%
62-63°F
44%
64-65°F
27%
66-67°F
42%
68-69°F
49%
70-71°F
44%
72-73°F
41%
74°F or higher
48%
68-69°F 49%
74°F or higher 48%
58-59°F 44%
62-63°F 44%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
55°F or below
$0 Vol.
22%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
3%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
44%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
41%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
44%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
27%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
42%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
49%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
44%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
41%
74°F or higher
$0 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service indicate the strongest consensus for overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 60s°F on August 29 in New York City, aligning with the market's leading 66-67°F outcome at 36.5% implied probability. This reflects typical late-August climatology, where average minimum temperatures hover near 65°F, combined with current steering patterns favoring mild maritime air rather than stronger cold advection. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread, with some runs supporting 64-65°F or 68-69°F bins, while probabilities for sub-60°F readings remain lower due to limited historical analogs this time of year and stable high-pressure influence. Traders are monitoring the next model cycle for any shifts in boundary-layer cooling or dew-point trends ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service indicate the strongest consensus for overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 60s°F on August 29 in New York City, aligning with the market's leading 66-67°F outcome at 36.5% implied probability. This reflects typical late-August climatology, where average minimum temperatures hover near 65°F, combined with current steering patterns favoring mild maritime air rather than stronger cold advection. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread, with some runs supporting 64-65°F or 68-69°F bins, while probabilities for sub-60°F readings remain lower due to limited historical analogs this time of year and stable high-pressure influence. Traders are monitoring the next model cycle for any shifts in boundary-layer cooling or dew-point trends ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the National Weather Service indicate the strongest consensus for overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 60s°F on August 29 in New York City, aligning with the market's leading 66-67°F outcome at 36.5% implied probability. This reflects typical late-August climatology, where average minimum temperatures hover near 65°F, combined with current steering patterns favoring mild maritime air rather than stronger cold advection. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread, with some runs supporting 64-65°F or 68-69°F bins, while probabilities for sub-60°F readings remain lower due to limited historical analogs this time of year and stable high-pressure influence. Traders are monitoring the next model cycle for any shifts in boundary-layer cooling or dew-point trends ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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