Forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a highest temperature in Tokyo on August 28 most likely near 31–32°C, driven by partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms that could limit afternoon heating. Recent model runs show light easterly to southerly winds and high humidity around 60–80%, with precipitation probabilities of 10–50% during peak heating hours potentially capping the maximum if clouds thicken earlier than expected. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context, but day-to-day variability from steering patterns and local convection creates the observed market spread, with 30–33°C outcomes capturing the bulk of trader-implied probability ahead of final observational data from the official Tokyo station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
31°C 34%
30°C 22%
32°C 20%
33°C 9%
NEW
$12,227 Vol.
NEW
$12,227 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
7%
30°C
22%
31°C
34%
32°C
20%
33°C
9%
34°C
3%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 34%
30°C 22%
32°C 20%
33°C 9%
NEW
$12,227 Vol.
NEW
$12,227 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
26°C or below
$2,446 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$115 Vol.
1%
28°C
$400 Vol.
3%
29°C
$509 Vol.
7%
30°C
$1,633 Vol.
22%
31°C
$365 Vol.
34%
32°C
$2,508 Vol.
20%
33°C
$2,323 Vol.
9%
34°C
$196 Vol.
3%
35°C
$379 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$1,351 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a highest temperature in Tokyo on August 28 most likely near 31–32°C, driven by partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms that could limit afternoon heating. Recent model runs show light easterly to southerly winds and high humidity around 60–80%, with precipitation probabilities of 10–50% during peak heating hours potentially capping the maximum if clouds thicken earlier than expected. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context, but day-to-day variability from steering patterns and local convection creates the observed market spread, with 30–33°C outcomes capturing the bulk of trader-implied probability ahead of final observational data from the official Tokyo station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$12,227End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a highest temperature in Tokyo on August 28 most likely near 31–32°C, driven by partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms that could limit afternoon heating. Recent model runs show light easterly to southerly winds and high humidity around 60–80%, with precipitation probabilities of 10–50% during peak heating hours potentially capping the maximum if clouds thicken earlier than expected. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context, but day-to-day variability from steering patterns and local convection creates the observed market spread, with 30–33°C outcomes capturing the bulk of trader-implied probability ahead of final observational data from the official Tokyo station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,227End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a highest temperature in Tokyo on August 28 most likely near 31–32°C, driven by partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms that could limit afternoon heating. Recent model runs show light easterly to southerly winds and high humidity around 60–80%, with precipitation probabilities of 10–50% during peak heating hours potentially capping the maximum if clouds thicken earlier than expected. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context, but day-to-day variability from steering patterns and local convection creates the observed market spread, with 30–33°C outcomes capturing the bulk of trader-implied probability ahead of final observational data from the official Tokyo station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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