Latest short-range model guidance from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to a high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies and light southerly to southwesterly winds over Madrid on August 29, supporting daytime warming to a peak near 29–30 °C at standard observing sites such as Retiro. Current conditions on the 27th show cooler, partly cloudy weather around 23 °C that is expected to give way to rapid clearing and drier air by the weekend, reducing cloud cover and allowing stronger solar heating. The tight 43.5 %–42.5 % market split between 30 °C and 31 °C reflects small remaining ensemble spread in maximum temperature tied to exact wind timing and any residual boundary-layer moisture, while lower probabilities for 28 °C or 32 °C+ align with the narrow forecast envelope and historical late-August climatology centered near 30–31 °C. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance in the next 24–48 hours will further constrain the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 29?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 29?
31°C 44%
30°C 43%
32°C 8%
29°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
3%
29°C
8%
30°C
43%
31°C
44%
32°C
8%
33°C
4%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 44%
30°C 43%
32°C 8%
29°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
25°C or below
$55 Vol.
1%
26°C
$5 Vol.
2%
27°C
$5 Vol.
2%
28°C
$5 Vol.
3%
29°C
$108 Vol.
8%
30°C
$82 Vol.
43%
31°C
$70 Vol.
44%
32°C
$72 Vol.
8%
33°C
$17 Vol.
4%
34°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest short-range model guidance from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to a high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies and light southerly to southwesterly winds over Madrid on August 29, supporting daytime warming to a peak near 29–30 °C at standard observing sites such as Retiro. Current conditions on the 27th show cooler, partly cloudy weather around 23 °C that is expected to give way to rapid clearing and drier air by the weekend, reducing cloud cover and allowing stronger solar heating. The tight 43.5 %–42.5 % market split between 30 °C and 31 °C reflects small remaining ensemble spread in maximum temperature tied to exact wind timing and any residual boundary-layer moisture, while lower probabilities for 28 °C or 32 °C+ align with the narrow forecast envelope and historical late-August climatology centered near 30–31 °C. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance in the next 24–48 hours will further constrain the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$428End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest short-range model guidance from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to a high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies and light southerly to southwesterly winds over Madrid on August 29, supporting daytime warming to a peak near 29–30 °C at standard observing sites such as Retiro. Current conditions on the 27th show cooler, partly cloudy weather around 23 °C that is expected to give way to rapid clearing and drier air by the weekend, reducing cloud cover and allowing stronger solar heating. The tight 43.5 %–42.5 % market split between 30 °C and 31 °C reflects small remaining ensemble spread in maximum temperature tied to exact wind timing and any residual boundary-layer moisture, while lower probabilities for 28 °C or 32 °C+ align with the narrow forecast envelope and historical late-August climatology centered near 30–31 °C. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance in the next 24–48 hours will further constrain the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$428End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest short-range model guidance from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to a high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies and light southerly to southwesterly winds over Madrid on August 29, supporting daytime warming to a peak near 29–30 °C at standard observing sites such as Retiro. Current conditions on the 27th show cooler, partly cloudy weather around 23 °C that is expected to give way to rapid clearing and drier air by the weekend, reducing cloud cover and allowing stronger solar heating. The tight 43.5 %–42.5 % market split between 30 °C and 31 °C reflects small remaining ensemble spread in maximum temperature tied to exact wind timing and any residual boundary-layer moisture, while lower probabilities for 28 °C or 32 °C+ align with the narrow forecast envelope and historical late-August climatology centered near 30–31 °C. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance in the next 24–48 hours will further constrain the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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