Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate a Tokyo minimum near 24–26°C on August 28, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 70–85%, and light variable winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions align with typical late-August patterns where urban heat-island effects and moisture from nearby showers keep overnight lows elevated above seasonal averages of 22–23°C. Current observations show temperatures holding above 25°C into the evening, with model consensus narrowing the likely range and supporting the market’s strong weighting toward 26°C as the recorded low. Updated JMA guidance and station data releases later today remain the key near-term variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
22°C or below 3%
24°C 2%
23°C 1%
27°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
22°C or below
3%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
31%
26°C
54%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
22°C or below 3%
24°C 2%
23°C 1%
27°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
22°C or below
$935 Vol.
3%
23°C
$961 Vol.
1%
24°C
$1,013 Vol.
2%
25°C
$771 Vol.
31%
26°C
$2,339 Vol.
54%
27°C
$430 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$268 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$925 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$328 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$202 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$352 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate a Tokyo minimum near 24–26°C on August 28, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 70–85%, and light variable winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions align with typical late-August patterns where urban heat-island effects and moisture from nearby showers keep overnight lows elevated above seasonal averages of 22–23°C. Current observations show temperatures holding above 25°C into the evening, with model consensus narrowing the likely range and supporting the market’s strong weighting toward 26°C as the recorded low. Updated JMA guidance and station data releases later today remain the key near-term variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$8,524End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate a Tokyo minimum near 24–26°C on August 28, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 70–85%, and light variable winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions align with typical late-August patterns where urban heat-island effects and moisture from nearby showers keep overnight lows elevated above seasonal averages of 22–23°C. Current observations show temperatures holding above 25°C into the evening, with model consensus narrowing the likely range and supporting the market’s strong weighting toward 26°C as the recorded low. Updated JMA guidance and station data releases later today remain the key near-term variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,524End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate a Tokyo minimum near 24–26°C on August 28, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 70–85%, and light variable winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions align with typical late-August patterns where urban heat-island effects and moisture from nearby showers keep overnight lows elevated above seasonal averages of 22–23°C. Current observations show temperatures holding above 25°C into the evening, with model consensus narrowing the likely range and supporting the market’s strong weighting toward 26°C as the recorded low. Updated JMA guidance and station data releases later today remain the key near-term variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions