**Forecast consensus points to a minimum of 22–23°C in Tokyo on August 29, 2026, aligning with the tied leading market outcomes at 26.5% each.** Official and model guidance from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency, Met Office, and numerical models indicate an overcast, rainy day driven by northeasterly flow and a nearby frontal system. This setup suppresses daytime heating (highs 27–29°C) while limiting nocturnal radiative cooling through persistent cloud cover and high humidity (dew points near 20–22°C). Hourly projections show overnight lows bottoming near 21–23°C, with the precise minimum hinging on the timing and intensity of showers—thicker, longer-lasting clouds favor the lower end of the range. Typical late-August climatology features minima around 23°C; the cooler, unsettled pattern this weekend represents a modest departure. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 21–24°C because small differences in model timing for cloud breaks or wind shifts can shift the overnight low by 1–2°C, while probabilities drop sharply outside this band given current steering patterns and moisture. Updated model runs and Japan Meteorological Agency briefings over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 29?
22°C 27%
23°C 27%
21°C 15%
24°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
19°C or below
5%
20°C
9%
21°C
15%
22°C
27%
23°C
27%
24°C
14%
25°C
6%
26°C
3%
27°C
1%
28°C
8%
29°C or higher
7%
22°C 27%
23°C 27%
21°C 15%
24°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
19°C or below
$58 Vol.
5%
20°C
$0 Vol.
9%
21°C
$0 Vol.
15%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C
$0 Vol.
27%
24°C
$0 Vol.
14%
25°C
$66 Vol.
6%
26°C
$61 Vol.
3%
27°C
$69 Vol.
1%
28°C
$5 Vol.
8%
29°C or higher
$5 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a minimum of 22–23°C in Tokyo on August 29, 2026, aligning with the tied leading market outcomes at 26.5% each.**
Official and model guidance from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency, Met Office, and numerical models indicate an overcast, rainy day driven by northeasterly flow and a nearby frontal system. This setup suppresses daytime heating (highs 27–29°C) while limiting nocturnal radiative cooling through persistent cloud cover and high humidity (dew points near 20–22°C). Hourly projections show overnight lows bottoming near 21–23°C, with the precise minimum hinging on the timing and intensity of showers—thicker, longer-lasting clouds favor the lower end of the range.
Typical late-August climatology features minima around 23°C; the cooler, unsettled pattern this weekend represents a modest departure. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 21–24°C because small differences in model timing for cloud breaks or wind shifts can shift the overnight low by 1–2°C, while probabilities drop sharply outside this band given current steering patterns and moisture. Updated model runs and Japan Meteorological Agency briefings over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$264End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a minimum of 22–23°C in Tokyo on August 29, 2026, aligning with the tied leading market outcomes at 26.5% each.**
Official and model guidance from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency, Met Office, and numerical models indicate an overcast, rainy day driven by northeasterly flow and a nearby frontal system. This setup suppresses daytime heating (highs 27–29°C) while limiting nocturnal radiative cooling through persistent cloud cover and high humidity (dew points near 20–22°C). Hourly projections show overnight lows bottoming near 21–23°C, with the precise minimum hinging on the timing and intensity of showers—thicker, longer-lasting clouds favor the lower end of the range.
Typical late-August climatology features minima around 23°C; the cooler, unsettled pattern this weekend represents a modest departure. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 21–24°C because small differences in model timing for cloud breaks or wind shifts can shift the overnight low by 1–2°C, while probabilities drop sharply outside this band given current steering patterns and moisture. Updated model runs and Japan Meteorological Agency briefings over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$264End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus points to a minimum of 22–23°C in Tokyo on August 29, 2026, aligning with the tied leading market outcomes at 26.5% each.** Official and model guidance from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency, Met Office, and numerical models indicate an overcast, rainy day driven by northeasterly flow and a nearby frontal system. This setup suppresses daytime heating (highs 27–29°C) while limiting nocturnal radiative cooling through persistent cloud cover and high humidity (dew points near 20–22°C). Hourly projections show overnight lows bottoming near 21–23°C, with the precise minimum hinging on the timing and intensity of showers—thicker, longer-lasting clouds favor the lower end of the range. Typical late-August climatology features minima around 23°C; the cooler, unsettled pattern this weekend represents a modest departure. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 21–24°C because small differences in model timing for cloud breaks or wind shifts can shift the overnight low by 1–2°C, while probabilities drop sharply outside this band given current steering patterns and moisture. Updated model runs and Japan Meteorological Agency briefings over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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