**Recent expansion of exceptional drought (D4) across parts of the western U.S., Great Plains, and South—driven by persistent above-normal temperatures, below-average precipitation, and a heat dome—positions 5–9 or 10+ states as the leading market outcomes for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026.** The latest map (released August 27, valid August 25) shows D4 covering 1.5% of the contiguous U.S., with degradation noted in northeastern Idaho, portions of Utah, southern California deserts, western Nebraska/Colorado, the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and southeastern Arkansas, alongside D3 expansion in the Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest. A strengthening El Niño favors later wetter conditions in the Southwest but offers limited near-term relief, while seasonal dryness persists elsewhere. The next weekly USDM update, based on observations through early September, will directly inform resolution amid ongoing model spread in short-term precipitation forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?
10 or more states 53%
5-6 states 43%
7-9 states 42%
1-2 states 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
0 states
26%
1-2 states
27%
3-4 states
26%
5-6 states
43%
7-9 states
42%
10 or more states
53%
10 or more states 53%
5-6 states 43%
7-9 states 42%
1-2 states 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
0 states
$1 Vol.
26%
1-2 states
$0 Vol.
27%
3-4 states
$1 Vol.
26%
5-6 states
$0 Vol.
43%
7-9 states
$1 Vol.
42%
10 or more states
$0 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Recent expansion of exceptional drought (D4) across parts of the western U.S., Great Plains, and South—driven by persistent above-normal temperatures, below-average precipitation, and a heat dome—positions 5–9 or 10+ states as the leading market outcomes for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026.**
The latest map (released August 27, valid August 25) shows D4 covering 1.5% of the contiguous U.S., with degradation noted in northeastern Idaho, portions of Utah, southern California deserts, western Nebraska/Colorado, the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and southeastern Arkansas, alongside D3 expansion in the Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest. A strengthening El Niño favors later wetter conditions in the Southwest but offers limited near-term relief, while seasonal dryness persists elsewhere. The next weekly USDM update, based on observations through early September, will directly inform resolution amid ongoing model spread in short-term precipitation forecasts.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volume
$3End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Recent expansion of exceptional drought (D4) across parts of the western U.S., Great Plains, and South—driven by persistent above-normal temperatures, below-average precipitation, and a heat dome—positions 5–9 or 10+ states as the leading market outcomes for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026.**
The latest map (released August 27, valid August 25) shows D4 covering 1.5% of the contiguous U.S., with degradation noted in northeastern Idaho, portions of Utah, southern California deserts, western Nebraska/Colorado, the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and southeastern Arkansas, alongside D3 expansion in the Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest. A strengthening El Niño favors later wetter conditions in the Southwest but offers limited near-term relief, while seasonal dryness persists elsewhere. The next weekly USDM update, based on observations through early September, will directly inform resolution amid ongoing model spread in short-term precipitation forecasts.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$3End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent expansion of exceptional drought (D4) across parts of the western U.S., Great Plains, and South—driven by persistent above-normal temperatures, below-average precipitation, and a heat dome—positions 5–9 or 10+ states as the leading market outcomes for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026.** The latest map (released August 27, valid August 25) shows D4 covering 1.5% of the contiguous U.S., with degradation noted in northeastern Idaho, portions of Utah, southern California deserts, western Nebraska/Colorado, the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and southeastern Arkansas, alongside D3 expansion in the Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest. A strengthening El Niño favors later wetter conditions in the Southwest but offers limited near-term relief, while seasonal dryness persists elsewhere. The next weekly USDM update, based on observations through early September, will directly inform resolution amid ongoing model spread in short-term precipitation forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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