Tropical Storm Dolly, currently at 40 mph sustained winds far east in the Atlantic, faces rapidly deteriorating conditions that explain the 92% market-implied probability it will not reach hurricane strength. The National Hurricane Center forecast calls for little intensity change over the next 48 hours before the system degenerates into a tropical wave, driven by increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, fast westward motion, and dry air aloft. Model consensus aligns tightly with this outcome, limiting any window for organization despite the storm's recent formation. While an unexpected reduction in shear or slower movement could allow modest strengthening in rare cases, current atmospheric indicators and official guidance make significant intensification highly unlikely before the system weakens.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
8% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
8% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly, currently at 40 mph sustained winds far east in the Atlantic, faces rapidly deteriorating conditions that explain the 92% market-implied probability it will not reach hurricane strength. The National Hurricane Center forecast calls for little intensity change over the next 48 hours before the system degenerates into a tropical wave, driven by increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, fast westward motion, and dry air aloft. Model consensus aligns tightly with this outcome, limiting any window for organization despite the storm's recent formation. While an unexpected reduction in shear or slower movement could allow modest strengthening in rare cases, current atmospheric indicators and official guidance make significant intensification highly unlikely before the system weakens.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$89End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly, currently at 40 mph sustained winds far east in the Atlantic, faces rapidly deteriorating conditions that explain the 92% market-implied probability it will not reach hurricane strength. The National Hurricane Center forecast calls for little intensity change over the next 48 hours before the system degenerates into a tropical wave, driven by increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, fast westward motion, and dry air aloft. Model consensus aligns tightly with this outcome, limiting any window for organization despite the storm's recent formation. While an unexpected reduction in shear or slower movement could allow modest strengthening in rare cases, current atmospheric indicators and official guidance make significant intensification highly unlikely before the system weakens.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$89End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Dolly, currently at 40 mph sustained winds far east in the Atlantic, faces rapidly deteriorating conditions that explain the 92% market-implied probability it will not reach hurricane strength. The National Hurricane Center forecast calls for little intensity change over the next 48 hours before the system degenerates into a tropical wave, driven by increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, fast westward motion, and dry air aloft. Model consensus aligns tightly with this outcome, limiting any window for organization despite the storm's recent formation. While an unexpected reduction in shear or slower movement could allow modest strengthening in rare cases, current atmospheric indicators and official guidance make significant intensification highly unlikely before the system weakens.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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