**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and supporting models indicate a high near 98°F for Houston on August 27, 2026, under mostly sunny skies with a 20-30% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms.** This places the most likely outcome in the 96-99°F range, consistent with the market's leading probabilities for 94-95°F (36.5%) and 96-97°F (30.0%). Persistent high pressure and southwesterly flow have sustained a regional heat wave, with recent daily highs of 100-104°F. However, increasing moisture and instability are expected to introduce scattered convection by afternoon, potentially reducing peak insolation and slightly capping temperatures compared to the prior two days. Model consensus shows limited disagreement on overall steering patterns, but small variations in cloud cover timing, thunderstorm coverage, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily maximum by 2-4°F—precisely the narrow band separating the top two market outcomes. Traders appear to weigh the modest rain probability and historical analogs for late-August transition days more heavily than the raw model highs, producing tight clustering around the mid-90s. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon model runs on August 26 will likely provide the next key data points influencing resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 27?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 27?
94-95°F 37%
96-97°F 30%
92-93°F 22%
98-99°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
89°F or below
1%
90-91°F
6%
92-93°F
22%
94-95°F
37%
96-97°F
30%
98-99°F
15%
100-101°F
3%
102-103°F
2%
104-105°F
2%
106-107°F
2%
108°F or higher
1%
94-95°F 37%
96-97°F 30%
92-93°F 22%
98-99°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
89°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$10 Vol.
6%
92-93°F
$22 Vol.
22%
94-95°F
$62 Vol.
37%
96-97°F
$5 Vol.
30%
98-99°F
$2 Vol.
15%
100-101°F
$91 Vol.
3%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
2%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
2%
106-107°F
$0 Vol.
2%
108°F or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and supporting models indicate a high near 98°F for Houston on August 27, 2026, under mostly sunny skies with a 20-30% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms.** This places the most likely outcome in the 96-99°F range, consistent with the market's leading probabilities for 94-95°F (36.5%) and 96-97°F (30.0%).
Persistent high pressure and southwesterly flow have sustained a regional heat wave, with recent daily highs of 100-104°F. However, increasing moisture and instability are expected to introduce scattered convection by afternoon, potentially reducing peak insolation and slightly capping temperatures compared to the prior two days. Model consensus shows limited disagreement on overall steering patterns, but small variations in cloud cover timing, thunderstorm coverage, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily maximum by 2-4°F—precisely the narrow band separating the top two market outcomes.
Traders appear to weigh the modest rain probability and historical analogs for late-August transition days more heavily than the raw model highs, producing tight clustering around the mid-90s. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon model runs on August 26 will likely provide the next key data points influencing resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$192End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and supporting models indicate a high near 98°F for Houston on August 27, 2026, under mostly sunny skies with a 20-30% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms.** This places the most likely outcome in the 96-99°F range, consistent with the market's leading probabilities for 94-95°F (36.5%) and 96-97°F (30.0%).
Persistent high pressure and southwesterly flow have sustained a regional heat wave, with recent daily highs of 100-104°F. However, increasing moisture and instability are expected to introduce scattered convection by afternoon, potentially reducing peak insolation and slightly capping temperatures compared to the prior two days. Model consensus shows limited disagreement on overall steering patterns, but small variations in cloud cover timing, thunderstorm coverage, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily maximum by 2-4°F—precisely the narrow band separating the top two market outcomes.
Traders appear to weigh the modest rain probability and historical analogs for late-August transition days more heavily than the raw model highs, producing tight clustering around the mid-90s. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon model runs on August 26 will likely provide the next key data points influencing resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$192End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and supporting models indicate a high near 98°F for Houston on August 27, 2026, under mostly sunny skies with a 20-30% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms.** This places the most likely outcome in the 96-99°F range, consistent with the market's leading probabilities for 94-95°F (36.5%) and 96-97°F (30.0%). Persistent high pressure and southwesterly flow have sustained a regional heat wave, with recent daily highs of 100-104°F. However, increasing moisture and instability are expected to introduce scattered convection by afternoon, potentially reducing peak insolation and slightly capping temperatures compared to the prior two days. Model consensus shows limited disagreement on overall steering patterns, but small variations in cloud cover timing, thunderstorm coverage, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily maximum by 2-4°F—precisely the narrow band separating the top two market outcomes. Traders appear to weigh the modest rain probability and historical analogs for late-August transition days more heavily than the raw model highs, producing tight clustering around the mid-90s. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon model runs on August 26 will likely provide the next key data points influencing resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions