Persistent high pressure and a strong heat dome over North Texas are driving extreme heat into Dallas on August 25, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for mostly sunny skies, south-southwest winds, and afternoon highs near 105–106°F. Model consensus and recent observations from prior days (including a 109°F reading on August 24) support peak temperatures clustering in the mid-100s, though slight morning moisture and exact timing of maximum heating introduce minor uncertainty around whether readings reach 106–107°F or settle near 104–105°F. Traders appear to weigh the official guidance against historical August norms near 95°F and the low probability of any cooling influence, concentrating implied odds on the 104–105°F bin while assigning lower weight to outcomes above 107°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on August 25?
Highest temperature in Dallas on August 25?
104-105°F 47%
102-103°F 30%
106-107°F 18%
100-101°F 4.8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
99°F or below
2%
100-101°F
5%
102-103°F
30%
104-105°F
47%
106-107°F
18%
108-109°F
4%
110-111°F
2%
112-113°F
<1%
114-115°F
<1%
116-117°F
<1%
118°F or higher
<1%
104-105°F 47%
102-103°F 30%
106-107°F 18%
100-101°F 4.8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
99°F or below
$1,424 Vol.
2%
100-101°F
$2,315 Vol.
5%
102-103°F
$2,251 Vol.
30%
104-105°F
$1,686 Vol.
47%
106-107°F
$787 Vol.
18%
108-109°F
$174 Vol.
4%
110-111°F
$574 Vol.
2%
112-113°F
$249 Vol.
<1%
114-115°F
$252 Vol.
<1%
116-117°F
$237 Vol.
<1%
118°F or higher
$205 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and a strong heat dome over North Texas are driving extreme heat into Dallas on August 25, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for mostly sunny skies, south-southwest winds, and afternoon highs near 105–106°F. Model consensus and recent observations from prior days (including a 109°F reading on August 24) support peak temperatures clustering in the mid-100s, though slight morning moisture and exact timing of maximum heating introduce minor uncertainty around whether readings reach 106–107°F or settle near 104–105°F. Traders appear to weigh the official guidance against historical August norms near 95°F and the low probability of any cooling influence, concentrating implied odds on the 104–105°F bin while assigning lower weight to outcomes above 107°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$9,800End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and a strong heat dome over North Texas are driving extreme heat into Dallas on August 25, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for mostly sunny skies, south-southwest winds, and afternoon highs near 105–106°F. Model consensus and recent observations from prior days (including a 109°F reading on August 24) support peak temperatures clustering in the mid-100s, though slight morning moisture and exact timing of maximum heating introduce minor uncertainty around whether readings reach 106–107°F or settle near 104–105°F. Traders appear to weigh the official guidance against historical August norms near 95°F and the low probability of any cooling influence, concentrating implied odds on the 104–105°F bin while assigning lower weight to outcomes above 107°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,800End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high pressure and a strong heat dome over North Texas are driving extreme heat into Dallas on August 25, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for mostly sunny skies, south-southwest winds, and afternoon highs near 105–106°F. Model consensus and recent observations from prior days (including a 109°F reading on August 24) support peak temperatures clustering in the mid-100s, though slight morning moisture and exact timing of maximum heating introduce minor uncertainty around whether readings reach 106–107°F or settle near 104–105°F. Traders appear to weigh the official guidance against historical August norms near 95°F and the low probability of any cooling influence, concentrating implied odds on the 104–105°F bin while assigning lower weight to outcomes above 107°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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