Recent model runs and Polish Institute of Meteorology forecasts indicate a building high-pressure system advecting warmer air masses toward Warsaw, supporting daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 20s °C on August 28. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF guidance show notable uncertainty around peak values due to variable cloud cover, southeasterly wind strength, and the timing of an approaching frontal boundary. Historical August climatology places typical maxima near 24–25 °C, making the current warmer anomaly a key driver of trader positioning, while the two-day forecast horizon and resolution criteria around exact thresholds keep implied probabilities evenly distributed across bins. Updated model outputs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 28?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 28?
21°C or below 100%
22°C 100%
23°C 100%
24°C 100%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
21°C or below
100%
22°C
100%
23°C
100%
24°C
100%
25°C
100%
26°C
100%
27°C
100%
28°C
100%
29°C
100%
30°C
100%
31°C or higher
100%
21°C or below 100%
22°C 100%
23°C 100%
24°C 100%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
22°C
$0 Vol.
100%
23°C
$0 Vol.
100%
24°C
$0 Vol.
100%
25°C
$0 Vol.
100%
26°C
$0 Vol.
100%
27°C
$0 Vol.
100%
28°C
$0 Vol.
100%
29°C
$0 Vol.
100%
30°C
$0 Vol.
100%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs and Polish Institute of Meteorology forecasts indicate a building high-pressure system advecting warmer air masses toward Warsaw, supporting daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 20s °C on August 28. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF guidance show notable uncertainty around peak values due to variable cloud cover, southeasterly wind strength, and the timing of an approaching frontal boundary. Historical August climatology places typical maxima near 24–25 °C, making the current warmer anomaly a key driver of trader positioning, while the two-day forecast horizon and resolution criteria around exact thresholds keep implied probabilities evenly distributed across bins. Updated model outputs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs and Polish Institute of Meteorology forecasts indicate a building high-pressure system advecting warmer air masses toward Warsaw, supporting daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 20s °C on August 28. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF guidance show notable uncertainty around peak values due to variable cloud cover, southeasterly wind strength, and the timing of an approaching frontal boundary. Historical August climatology places typical maxima near 24–25 °C, making the current warmer anomaly a key driver of trader positioning, while the two-day forecast horizon and resolution criteria around exact thresholds keep implied probabilities evenly distributed across bins. Updated model outputs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs and Polish Institute of Meteorology forecasts indicate a building high-pressure system advecting warmer air masses toward Warsaw, supporting daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 20s °C on August 28. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF guidance show notable uncertainty around peak values due to variable cloud cover, southeasterly wind strength, and the timing of an approaching frontal boundary. Historical August climatology places typical maxima near 24–25 °C, making the current warmer anomaly a key driver of trader positioning, while the two-day forecast horizon and resolution criteria around exact thresholds keep implied probabilities evenly distributed across bins. Updated model outputs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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