National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Karina, currently at 45 mph sustained winds south of Baja California, will reach hurricane strength over the weekend as it tracks northwestward. Official guidance projects steady intensification to 70-85 kt within 48 hours, supported by model consensus including SHIPS-RII showing potential for rapid strengthening amid warm sea surface temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions. The storm's recent formation with an initially elongated circulation introduces some uncertainty in the exact timing, yet the clear environmental setup aligns with the 73.5% market-implied odds for crossing the 74 mph threshold before encountering cooler waters and drier air later in its track.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Tropical Storm Karina strengthen to a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Karina strengthen to a hurricane?
73% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
73% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Karina, currently at 45 mph sustained winds south of Baja California, will reach hurricane strength over the weekend as it tracks northwestward. Official guidance projects steady intensification to 70-85 kt within 48 hours, supported by model consensus including SHIPS-RII showing potential for rapid strengthening amid warm sea surface temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions. The storm's recent formation with an initially elongated circulation introduces some uncertainty in the exact timing, yet the clear environmental setup aligns with the 73.5% market-implied odds for crossing the 74 mph threshold before encountering cooler waters and drier air later in its track.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 5:19 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 5:19 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Karina, currently at 45 mph sustained winds south of Baja California, will reach hurricane strength over the weekend as it tracks northwestward. Official guidance projects steady intensification to 70-85 kt within 48 hours, supported by model consensus including SHIPS-RII showing potential for rapid strengthening amid warm sea surface temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions. The storm's recent formation with an initially elongated circulation introduces some uncertainty in the exact timing, yet the clear environmental setup aligns with the 73.5% market-implied odds for crossing the 74 mph threshold before encountering cooler waters and drier air later in its track.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 5:19 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Karina, currently at 45 mph sustained winds south of Baja California, will reach hurricane strength over the weekend as it tracks northwestward. Official guidance projects steady intensification to 70-85 kt within 48 hours, supported by model consensus including SHIPS-RII showing potential for rapid strengthening amid warm sea surface temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions. The storm's recent formation with an initially elongated circulation introduces some uncertainty in the exact timing, yet the clear environmental setup aligns with the 73.5% market-implied odds for crossing the 74 mph threshold before encountering cooler waters and drier air later in its track.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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