The closely matched 25% probabilities for 20–23°C highs in Mexico City on August 29 reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty typical of the late-summer rainy season. Mexico City’s 2,240 m elevation keeps baseline temperatures moderate, while variable afternoon convection driven by monsoon moisture and orographic lift can cap peaks through cloud cover, evaporative cooling, or brief showers. Global models (GFS, ECMWF) currently show a tight spread around the climatological August mean of ~22°C, with differences hinging on exact timing of instability and boundary-layer humidity. Traders are pricing the full range because even modest shifts in these parameters—common within 24–48 hours—can move the daily maximum by 2–3°C before official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations finalize the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 29?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 29?
24°C 49%
23°C 27%
22°C 18%
21°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
17°C or below
4%
18°C
4%
19°C
4%
20°C
9%
21°C
12%
22°C
18%
23°C
27%
24°C
49%
25°C
6%
26°C
6%
27°C or higher
6%
24°C 49%
23°C 27%
22°C 18%
21°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
18°C
$0 Vol.
4%
19°C
$0 Vol.
4%
20°C
$0 Vol.
9%
21°C
$0 Vol.
12%
22°C
$0 Vol.
18%
23°C
$0 Vol.
27%
24°C
$0 Vol.
49%
25°C
$0 Vol.
6%
26°C
$0 Vol.
6%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched 25% probabilities for 20–23°C highs in Mexico City on August 29 reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty typical of the late-summer rainy season. Mexico City’s 2,240 m elevation keeps baseline temperatures moderate, while variable afternoon convection driven by monsoon moisture and orographic lift can cap peaks through cloud cover, evaporative cooling, or brief showers. Global models (GFS, ECMWF) currently show a tight spread around the climatological August mean of ~22°C, with differences hinging on exact timing of instability and boundary-layer humidity. Traders are pricing the full range because even modest shifts in these parameters—common within 24–48 hours—can move the daily maximum by 2–3°C before official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations finalize the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched 25% probabilities for 20–23°C highs in Mexico City on August 29 reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty typical of the late-summer rainy season. Mexico City’s 2,240 m elevation keeps baseline temperatures moderate, while variable afternoon convection driven by monsoon moisture and orographic lift can cap peaks through cloud cover, evaporative cooling, or brief showers. Global models (GFS, ECMWF) currently show a tight spread around the climatological August mean of ~22°C, with differences hinging on exact timing of instability and boundary-layer humidity. Traders are pricing the full range because even modest shifts in these parameters—common within 24–48 hours—can move the daily maximum by 2–3°C before official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations finalize the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched 25% probabilities for 20–23°C highs in Mexico City on August 29 reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty typical of the late-summer rainy season. Mexico City’s 2,240 m elevation keeps baseline temperatures moderate, while variable afternoon convection driven by monsoon moisture and orographic lift can cap peaks through cloud cover, evaporative cooling, or brief showers. Global models (GFS, ECMWF) currently show a tight spread around the climatological August mean of ~22°C, with differences hinging on exact timing of instability and boundary-layer humidity. Traders are pricing the full range because even modest shifts in these parameters—common within 24–48 hours—can move the daily maximum by 2–3°C before official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations finalize the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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