**Official National Weather Service forecasts from the Chicago office, updated as of early August 28, 2026, call for a Saturday high near 81°F under increasing clouds with southwesterly flow.** This aligns closely with the market’s leading outcomes of 80–81°F (39.5% implied probability) and 82–83°F (32%), which together capture the bulk of trader consensus around a low-80s peak. Key scientific drivers include modest surface heating under weak pressure gradients, with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s supporting efficient boundary-layer warming but limited by afternoon cloud build-up that reduces insolation. Southwesterly winds of 5–10 mph promote some mixing and advection of slightly cooler air from upstream, while a low (20%) chance of showers introduces minor uncertainty in timing and coverage that could further suppress the maximum. Differentiation between the top two bins hinges on small forecast variations: earlier or thicker mid-level clouds, slightly stronger mixing, or minor convective development would favor the 80–81°F range, whereas delayed cloud cover or marginally higher mixing ratios could allow readings to reach 82–83°F. Model consensus and recent runs show little spread, keeping probabilities tightly clustered and reflecting the high confidence in near-normal late-August conditions for the region.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 29?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 29?
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 32%
78-79°F 16%
84-85°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
16%
80-81°F
40%
82-83°F
32%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 32%
78-79°F 16%
84-85°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
75°F or below
$167 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$223 Vol.
5%
78-79°F
$161 Vol.
16%
80-81°F
$124 Vol.
40%
82-83°F
$699 Vol.
32%
84-85°F
$299 Vol.
8%
86-87°F
$149 Vol.
3%
88-89°F
$46 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$120 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$333 Vol.
<1%
94°F or higher
$333 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service forecasts from the Chicago office, updated as of early August 28, 2026, call for a Saturday high near 81°F under increasing clouds with southwesterly flow.** This aligns closely with the market’s leading outcomes of 80–81°F (39.5% implied probability) and 82–83°F (32%), which together capture the bulk of trader consensus around a low-80s peak.
Key scientific drivers include modest surface heating under weak pressure gradients, with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s supporting efficient boundary-layer warming but limited by afternoon cloud build-up that reduces insolation. Southwesterly winds of 5–10 mph promote some mixing and advection of slightly cooler air from upstream, while a low (20%) chance of showers introduces minor uncertainty in timing and coverage that could further suppress the maximum.
Differentiation between the top two bins hinges on small forecast variations: earlier or thicker mid-level clouds, slightly stronger mixing, or minor convective development would favor the 80–81°F range, whereas delayed cloud cover or marginally higher mixing ratios could allow readings to reach 82–83°F. Model consensus and recent runs show little spread, keeping probabilities tightly clustered and reflecting the high confidence in near-normal late-August conditions for the region.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,648End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service forecasts from the Chicago office, updated as of early August 28, 2026, call for a Saturday high near 81°F under increasing clouds with southwesterly flow.** This aligns closely with the market’s leading outcomes of 80–81°F (39.5% implied probability) and 82–83°F (32%), which together capture the bulk of trader consensus around a low-80s peak.
Key scientific drivers include modest surface heating under weak pressure gradients, with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s supporting efficient boundary-layer warming but limited by afternoon cloud build-up that reduces insolation. Southwesterly winds of 5–10 mph promote some mixing and advection of slightly cooler air from upstream, while a low (20%) chance of showers introduces minor uncertainty in timing and coverage that could further suppress the maximum.
Differentiation between the top two bins hinges on small forecast variations: earlier or thicker mid-level clouds, slightly stronger mixing, or minor convective development would favor the 80–81°F range, whereas delayed cloud cover or marginally higher mixing ratios could allow readings to reach 82–83°F. Model consensus and recent runs show little spread, keeping probabilities tightly clustered and reflecting the high confidence in near-normal late-August conditions for the region.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,648End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official National Weather Service forecasts from the Chicago office, updated as of early August 28, 2026, call for a Saturday high near 81°F under increasing clouds with southwesterly flow.** This aligns closely with the market’s leading outcomes of 80–81°F (39.5% implied probability) and 82–83°F (32%), which together capture the bulk of trader consensus around a low-80s peak. Key scientific drivers include modest surface heating under weak pressure gradients, with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s supporting efficient boundary-layer warming but limited by afternoon cloud build-up that reduces insolation. Southwesterly winds of 5–10 mph promote some mixing and advection of slightly cooler air from upstream, while a low (20%) chance of showers introduces minor uncertainty in timing and coverage that could further suppress the maximum. Differentiation between the top two bins hinges on small forecast variations: earlier or thicker mid-level clouds, slightly stronger mixing, or minor convective development would favor the 80–81°F range, whereas delayed cloud cover or marginally higher mixing ratios could allow readings to reach 82–83°F. Model consensus and recent runs show little spread, keeping probabilities tightly clustered and reflecting the high confidence in near-normal late-August conditions for the region.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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