Current forecasts from multiple models indicate clear, sunny conditions over Beijing on August 30 with highs of 31–33°C, positioning 33°C as the market leader at 40.5% implied probability. Stable high pressure and light northwesterly winds favor strong daytime radiative heating under minimal cloud cover, pushing temperatures above the late-August climatological average of near 29–30°C. Recent model consensus shows little spread, with some guidance reaching 92°F (33°C) while others cap near 89–90°F (32°C), and negligible precipitation risk reinforces the tight distribution around these outcomes. As resolution nears, final observational data and any last model adjustments will determine whether the peak exceeds or falls short of the 33°C threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 30?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 30?
33°C 40%
32°C 27%
34°C 16%
31°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
4%
29°C
2%
30°C
5%
31°C
11%
32°C
27%
33°C
40%
34°C
16%
35°C
5%
36°C or higher
3%
33°C 40%
32°C 27%
34°C 16%
31°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
26°C or below
$105 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$80 Vol.
4%
29°C
$0 Vol.
2%
30°C
$35 Vol.
5%
31°C
$33 Vol.
11%
32°C
$14 Vol.
27%
33°C
$191 Vol.
40%
34°C
$17 Vol.
16%
35°C
$0 Vol.
5%
36°C or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate clear, sunny conditions over Beijing on August 30 with highs of 31–33°C, positioning 33°C as the market leader at 40.5% implied probability. Stable high pressure and light northwesterly winds favor strong daytime radiative heating under minimal cloud cover, pushing temperatures above the late-August climatological average of near 29–30°C. Recent model consensus shows little spread, with some guidance reaching 92°F (33°C) while others cap near 89–90°F (32°C), and negligible precipitation risk reinforces the tight distribution around these outcomes. As resolution nears, final observational data and any last model adjustments will determine whether the peak exceeds or falls short of the 33°C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$474End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate clear, sunny conditions over Beijing on August 30 with highs of 31–33°C, positioning 33°C as the market leader at 40.5% implied probability. Stable high pressure and light northwesterly winds favor strong daytime radiative heating under minimal cloud cover, pushing temperatures above the late-August climatological average of near 29–30°C. Recent model consensus shows little spread, with some guidance reaching 92°F (33°C) while others cap near 89–90°F (32°C), and negligible precipitation risk reinforces the tight distribution around these outcomes. As resolution nears, final observational data and any last model adjustments will determine whether the peak exceeds or falls short of the 33°C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$474End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models indicate clear, sunny conditions over Beijing on August 30 with highs of 31–33°C, positioning 33°C as the market leader at 40.5% implied probability. Stable high pressure and light northwesterly winds favor strong daytime radiative heating under minimal cloud cover, pushing temperatures above the late-August climatological average of near 29–30°C. Recent model consensus shows little spread, with some guidance reaching 92°F (33°C) while others cap near 89–90°F (32°C), and negligible precipitation risk reinforces the tight distribution around these outcomes. As resolution nears, final observational data and any last model adjustments will determine whether the peak exceeds or falls short of the 33°C threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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