**Recent model consensus and high-pressure dominance position 26–27°C as the most probable highs for Warsaw on August 30, 2026.** A building anticyclone (wyż) over central Europe is delivering clearer skies, light southwesterly winds, and warmer air advection after cooler, showery conditions earlier in the week. Multiple sources, including Worldmeteo, The Weather Outlook, and Met Office guidance, forecast afternoon maxima of 26–27°C under partly cloudy or mostly sunny conditions with minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities, where 27°C leads at 44% and 26°C follows at 29%, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF showing limited spread around these values. Late-August climatology for Warsaw centers near 21–22°C, so the current setup represents a modest positive anomaly driven by subsidence and reduced cloud cover that enhances daytime heating. Key variables to watch in the next 48 hours include any eastward shift in the ridge or subtle frontal approaches that could cap temperatures near 25°C or allow brief clearing to push toward 28°C. Official IMGW updates and short-range model refreshes will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 30?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 30?
27°C 45%
28°C 34%
26°C 31%
25°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
4%
23°C
4%
24°C
17%
25°C
20%
26°C
31%
27°C
45%
28°C
34%
29°C
7%
30°C
6%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 45%
28°C 34%
26°C 31%
25°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
22°C
$0 Vol.
4%
23°C
$0 Vol.
4%
24°C
$0 Vol.
17%
25°C
$0 Vol.
20%
26°C
$5 Vol.
31%
27°C
$3 Vol.
45%
28°C
$0 Vol.
34%
29°C
$0 Vol.
7%
30°C
$0 Vol.
6%
31°C or higher
$11 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus and high-pressure dominance position 26–27°C as the most probable highs for Warsaw on August 30, 2026.**
A building anticyclone (wyż) over central Europe is delivering clearer skies, light southwesterly winds, and warmer air advection after cooler, showery conditions earlier in the week. Multiple sources, including Worldmeteo, The Weather Outlook, and Met Office guidance, forecast afternoon maxima of 26–27°C under partly cloudy or mostly sunny conditions with minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities, where 27°C leads at 44% and 26°C follows at 29%, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF showing limited spread around these values.
Late-August climatology for Warsaw centers near 21–22°C, so the current setup represents a modest positive anomaly driven by subsidence and reduced cloud cover that enhances daytime heating. Key variables to watch in the next 48 hours include any eastward shift in the ridge or subtle frontal approaches that could cap temperatures near 25°C or allow brief clearing to push toward 28°C. Official IMGW updates and short-range model refreshes will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$19End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus and high-pressure dominance position 26–27°C as the most probable highs for Warsaw on August 30, 2026.**
A building anticyclone (wyż) over central Europe is delivering clearer skies, light southwesterly winds, and warmer air advection after cooler, showery conditions earlier in the week. Multiple sources, including Worldmeteo, The Weather Outlook, and Met Office guidance, forecast afternoon maxima of 26–27°C under partly cloudy or mostly sunny conditions with minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities, where 27°C leads at 44% and 26°C follows at 29%, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF showing limited spread around these values.
Late-August climatology for Warsaw centers near 21–22°C, so the current setup represents a modest positive anomaly driven by subsidence and reduced cloud cover that enhances daytime heating. Key variables to watch in the next 48 hours include any eastward shift in the ridge or subtle frontal approaches that could cap temperatures near 25°C or allow brief clearing to push toward 28°C. Official IMGW updates and short-range model refreshes will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$19End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model consensus and high-pressure dominance position 26–27°C as the most probable highs for Warsaw on August 30, 2026.** A building anticyclone (wyż) over central Europe is delivering clearer skies, light southwesterly winds, and warmer air advection after cooler, showery conditions earlier in the week. Multiple sources, including Worldmeteo, The Weather Outlook, and Met Office guidance, forecast afternoon maxima of 26–27°C under partly cloudy or mostly sunny conditions with minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities, where 27°C leads at 44% and 26°C follows at 29%, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF showing limited spread around these values. Late-August climatology for Warsaw centers near 21–22°C, so the current setup represents a modest positive anomaly driven by subsidence and reduced cloud cover that enhances daytime heating. Key variables to watch in the next 48 hours include any eastward shift in the ridge or subtle frontal approaches that could cap temperatures near 25°C or allow brief clearing to push toward 28°C. Official IMGW updates and short-range model refreshes will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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