Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF indicate clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and a high-pressure ridge supporting maximum temperatures of 31–33°C in Madrid on August 30, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 33°C. Recent observations show a warming trend after cooler conditions on August 28, with dry air and minimal cloud cover enhancing daytime heating in the city’s continental climate. Official resolution will rely on AEMET station data, where small variations in timing or local effects could shift the peak between 32°C and 34°C. Traders appear to price in model consensus while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty ranges of 1–2°C for next-day highs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 30?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 30?
33°C 62%
32°C 18%
34°C 18%
31°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
18%
33°C
62%
34°C
18%
35°C
2%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 62%
32°C 18%
34°C 18%
31°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
28°C or below
$321 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$180 Vol.
1%
30°C
$112 Vol.
1%
31°C
$140 Vol.
2%
32°C
$535 Vol.
18%
33°C
$715 Vol.
62%
34°C
$1,999 Vol.
18%
35°C
$286 Vol.
2%
36°C
$102 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$70 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$120 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF indicate clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and a high-pressure ridge supporting maximum temperatures of 31–33°C in Madrid on August 30, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 33°C. Recent observations show a warming trend after cooler conditions on August 28, with dry air and minimal cloud cover enhancing daytime heating in the city’s continental climate. Official resolution will rely on AEMET station data, where small variations in timing or local effects could shift the peak between 32°C and 34°C. Traders appear to price in model consensus while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty ranges of 1–2°C for next-day highs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$4,579End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF indicate clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and a high-pressure ridge supporting maximum temperatures of 31–33°C in Madrid on August 30, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 33°C. Recent observations show a warming trend after cooler conditions on August 28, with dry air and minimal cloud cover enhancing daytime heating in the city’s continental climate. Official resolution will rely on AEMET station data, where small variations in timing or local effects could shift the peak between 32°C and 34°C. Traders appear to price in model consensus while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty ranges of 1–2°C for next-day highs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,579End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF indicate clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and a high-pressure ridge supporting maximum temperatures of 31–33°C in Madrid on August 30, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 33°C. Recent observations show a warming trend after cooler conditions on August 28, with dry air and minimal cloud cover enhancing daytime heating in the city’s continental climate. Official resolution will rely on AEMET station data, where small variations in timing or local effects could shift the peak between 32°C and 34°C. Traders appear to price in model consensus while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty ranges of 1–2°C for next-day highs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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