Recent forecast models from sources including the Met Office, Yr, and regional ensembles show Amsterdam's August 31 maximum likely reaching 19–20 °C under a southwesterly Atlantic flow, with scattered showers and thunderstorms limiting insolation and preventing stronger warming. This pattern, typical of late-summer low-pressure influence, keeps readings near or slightly below the 21–22 °C seasonal average while suppressing outliers above 21 °C or below 18 °C. The tight clustering of model guidance around these values aligns with the market's strong weighting toward 19 °C and 20 °C outcomes, reflecting traders' incorporation of the latest ensemble consensus ahead of final pre-event updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 31?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 31?
20°C 46%
19°C 31%
21°C 11%
18°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
8%
18°C
10%
19°C
31%
20°C
46%
21°C
11%
22°C
3%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
1%
20°C 46%
19°C 31%
21°C 11%
18°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
14°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$61 Vol.
1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
8%
18°C
$0 Vol.
10%
19°C
$39 Vol.
31%
20°C
$39 Vol.
46%
21°C
$32 Vol.
11%
22°C
$4 Vol.
3%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the Met Office, Yr, and regional ensembles show Amsterdam's August 31 maximum likely reaching 19–20 °C under a southwesterly Atlantic flow, with scattered showers and thunderstorms limiting insolation and preventing stronger warming. This pattern, typical of late-summer low-pressure influence, keeps readings near or slightly below the 21–22 °C seasonal average while suppressing outliers above 21 °C or below 18 °C. The tight clustering of model guidance around these values aligns with the market's strong weighting toward 19 °C and 20 °C outcomes, reflecting traders' incorporation of the latest ensemble consensus ahead of final pre-event updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$186End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the Met Office, Yr, and regional ensembles show Amsterdam's August 31 maximum likely reaching 19–20 °C under a southwesterly Atlantic flow, with scattered showers and thunderstorms limiting insolation and preventing stronger warming. This pattern, typical of late-summer low-pressure influence, keeps readings near or slightly below the 21–22 °C seasonal average while suppressing outliers above 21 °C or below 18 °C. The tight clustering of model guidance around these values aligns with the market's strong weighting toward 19 °C and 20 °C outcomes, reflecting traders' incorporation of the latest ensemble consensus ahead of final pre-event updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$186End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources including the Met Office, Yr, and regional ensembles show Amsterdam's August 31 maximum likely reaching 19–20 °C under a southwesterly Atlantic flow, with scattered showers and thunderstorms limiting insolation and preventing stronger warming. This pattern, typical of late-summer low-pressure influence, keeps readings near or slightly below the 21–22 °C seasonal average while suppressing outliers above 21 °C or below 18 °C. The tight clustering of model guidance around these values aligns with the market's strong weighting toward 19 °C and 20 °C outcomes, reflecting traders' incorporation of the latest ensemble consensus ahead of final pre-event updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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