Recent forecasts from models and the China Meteorological Administration indicate partly cloudy conditions over Chengdu on August 31 after scattered showers clear, supporting maximum temperatures near 32–34 °C. Trader consensus clustering around 34–36 °C reflects uncertainty in afternoon clearing timing, boundary-layer humidity, and Sichuan Basin subsidence patterns that can add 1–2 °C above regional guidance. Official station readings incorporate urban heat-island effects and precise wind shifts, while ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to exact cloud cover and dew-point evolution. Updated model runs and the next CMA briefing in the coming 24–48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 31?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 31?
35°C 37%
36°C 25%
34°C 22%
33°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
4%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
3%
33°C
10%
34°C
22%
35°C
25%
36°C
25%
37°C
10%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
1%
35°C 37%
36°C 25%
34°C 22%
33°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
30°C
$120 Vol.
4%
31°C
$0 Vol.
2%
32°C
$1 Vol.
3%
33°C
$2 Vol.
10%
34°C
$31 Vol.
22%
35°C
$58 Vol.
25%
36°C
$35 Vol.
25%
37°C
$128 Vol.
10%
38°C
$0 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models and the China Meteorological Administration indicate partly cloudy conditions over Chengdu on August 31 after scattered showers clear, supporting maximum temperatures near 32–34 °C. Trader consensus clustering around 34–36 °C reflects uncertainty in afternoon clearing timing, boundary-layer humidity, and Sichuan Basin subsidence patterns that can add 1–2 °C above regional guidance. Official station readings incorporate urban heat-island effects and precise wind shifts, while ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to exact cloud cover and dew-point evolution. Updated model runs and the next CMA briefing in the coming 24–48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$374End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models and the China Meteorological Administration indicate partly cloudy conditions over Chengdu on August 31 after scattered showers clear, supporting maximum temperatures near 32–34 °C. Trader consensus clustering around 34–36 °C reflects uncertainty in afternoon clearing timing, boundary-layer humidity, and Sichuan Basin subsidence patterns that can add 1–2 °C above regional guidance. Official station readings incorporate urban heat-island effects and precise wind shifts, while ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to exact cloud cover and dew-point evolution. Updated model runs and the next CMA briefing in the coming 24–48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$374End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models and the China Meteorological Administration indicate partly cloudy conditions over Chengdu on August 31 after scattered showers clear, supporting maximum temperatures near 32–34 °C. Trader consensus clustering around 34–36 °C reflects uncertainty in afternoon clearing timing, boundary-layer humidity, and Sichuan Basin subsidence patterns that can add 1–2 °C above regional guidance. Official station readings incorporate urban heat-island effects and precise wind shifts, while ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to exact cloud cover and dew-point evolution. Updated model runs and the next CMA briefing in the coming 24–48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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