Official MetService forecasts point to a 14°C maximum for Wellington on August 28 under mostly cloudy skies with strong northerly winds and light rain possible, consistent with late-winter climatology near 13–14°C. Trader consensus favoring 15–16°C (combined 87% implied probability) reflects northerly flow potentially advecting slightly milder maritime air, model spread on wind-driven mixing and cloud effects, and limited upside from any clearing. Lower outcomes below 14°C remain discounted given the current pressure pattern and observed trends, while 17°C+ carries low odds absent rapid warming. Updated model runs and MetService briefings ahead of the 24-hour period will provide the key signals for any shift in these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 28?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 28?
16°C 50%
15°C 38%
17°C 9%
14°C 4%
NEW
$30,730 Vol.
NEW
$30,730 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
4%
15°C
38%
16°C
50%
17°C
9%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 50%
15°C 38%
17°C 9%
14°C 4%
NEW
$30,730 Vol.
NEW
$30,730 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
10°C or below
$667 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$520 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,446 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$2,742 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$5,828 Vol.
4%
15°C
$5,044 Vol.
38%
16°C
$5,098 Vol.
50%
17°C
$4,573 Vol.
9%
18°C
$3,639 Vol.
1%
19°C
$646 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$557 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official MetService forecasts point to a 14°C maximum for Wellington on August 28 under mostly cloudy skies with strong northerly winds and light rain possible, consistent with late-winter climatology near 13–14°C. Trader consensus favoring 15–16°C (combined 87% implied probability) reflects northerly flow potentially advecting slightly milder maritime air, model spread on wind-driven mixing and cloud effects, and limited upside from any clearing. Lower outcomes below 14°C remain discounted given the current pressure pattern and observed trends, while 17°C+ carries low odds absent rapid warming. Updated model runs and MetService briefings ahead of the 24-hour period will provide the key signals for any shift in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$30,730End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official MetService forecasts point to a 14°C maximum for Wellington on August 28 under mostly cloudy skies with strong northerly winds and light rain possible, consistent with late-winter climatology near 13–14°C. Trader consensus favoring 15–16°C (combined 87% implied probability) reflects northerly flow potentially advecting slightly milder maritime air, model spread on wind-driven mixing and cloud effects, and limited upside from any clearing. Lower outcomes below 14°C remain discounted given the current pressure pattern and observed trends, while 17°C+ carries low odds absent rapid warming. Updated model runs and MetService briefings ahead of the 24-hour period will provide the key signals for any shift in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,730End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official MetService forecasts point to a 14°C maximum for Wellington on August 28 under mostly cloudy skies with strong northerly winds and light rain possible, consistent with late-winter climatology near 13–14°C. Trader consensus favoring 15–16°C (combined 87% implied probability) reflects northerly flow potentially advecting slightly milder maritime air, model spread on wind-driven mixing and cloud effects, and limited upside from any clearing. Lower outcomes below 14°C remain discounted given the current pressure pattern and observed trends, while 17°C+ carries low odds absent rapid warming. Updated model runs and MetService briefings ahead of the 24-hour period will provide the key signals for any shift in these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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