Latest numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles show high uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and southerly airflow for Wellington on August 28, keeping implied probabilities for a daily minimum of 10–13 °C nearly even. Clear skies and light winds would enhance surface heat loss under a stable anticyclone, favoring the lower end near 10–11 °C, while increased cloud cover or a modest northerly shift could limit cooling and push readings toward 12–13 °C. Historical late-August climatology places typical minima around 8–12 °C, underscoring how small changes in boundary-layer mixing and frontal timing can swing the outcome by 1–2 °C. Traders are watching the next model runs and official forecast updates for any shift in these key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 28?
10°C 46%
9°C 8%
8°C <1%
7°C or below <1%
NEW
$13,358 Vol.
NEW
$13,358 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
8%
10°C
46%
11°C
48%
12°C
46%
13°C
53%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
10°C 46%
9°C 8%
8°C <1%
7°C or below <1%
NEW
$13,358 Vol.
NEW
$13,358 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
7°C or below
$547 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$116 Vol.
1%
9°C
$164 Vol.
8%
10°C
$12 Vol.
46%
11°C
$25 Vol.
48%
12°C
$18 Vol.
46%
13°C
$1,863 Vol.
53%
14°C
$9,869 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$298 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$210 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$237 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles show high uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and southerly airflow for Wellington on August 28, keeping implied probabilities for a daily minimum of 10–13 °C nearly even. Clear skies and light winds would enhance surface heat loss under a stable anticyclone, favoring the lower end near 10–11 °C, while increased cloud cover or a modest northerly shift could limit cooling and push readings toward 12–13 °C. Historical late-August climatology places typical minima around 8–12 °C, underscoring how small changes in boundary-layer mixing and frontal timing can swing the outcome by 1–2 °C. Traders are watching the next model runs and official forecast updates for any shift in these key variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$13,358End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles show high uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and southerly airflow for Wellington on August 28, keeping implied probabilities for a daily minimum of 10–13 °C nearly even. Clear skies and light winds would enhance surface heat loss under a stable anticyclone, favoring the lower end near 10–11 °C, while increased cloud cover or a modest northerly shift could limit cooling and push readings toward 12–13 °C. Historical late-August climatology places typical minima around 8–12 °C, underscoring how small changes in boundary-layer mixing and frontal timing can swing the outcome by 1–2 °C. Traders are watching the next model runs and official forecast updates for any shift in these key variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,358End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles show high uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and southerly airflow for Wellington on August 28, keeping implied probabilities for a daily minimum of 10–13 °C nearly even. Clear skies and light winds would enhance surface heat loss under a stable anticyclone, favoring the lower end near 10–11 °C, while increased cloud cover or a modest northerly shift could limit cooling and push readings toward 12–13 °C. Historical late-August climatology places typical minima around 8–12 °C, underscoring how small changes in boundary-layer mixing and frontal timing can swing the outcome by 1–2 °C. Traders are watching the next model runs and official forecast updates for any shift in these key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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