Recent National Weather Service and model consensus point to a Saturday overnight low in Chicago near 66–70°F, with southerly flow, increasing cloud cover, and a 30–40% chance of showers after midnight limiting radiational cooling. This setup favors the 64–65°F bucket currently holding the highest market-implied probability, while the near-even odds on much colder or warmer extremes reflect lingering uncertainty in exact cloud timing and shower coverage. Southerly winds around 5–10 mph and dew points in the upper 50s should keep the minimum above typical late-August climatology unless clearer skies develop earlier than forecast. Updated NWS guidance and overnight model runs ahead of resolution will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 29?
74°F or higher 67%
55°F or below 61%
58-59°F 49%
60-61°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
55°F or below
61%
56-57°F
19%
58-59°F
49%
60-61°F
49%
62-63°F
25%
64-65°F
31%
66-67°F
36%
68-69°F
25%
70-71°F
49%
72-73°F
20%
74°F or higher
67%
74°F or higher 67%
55°F or below 61%
58-59°F 49%
60-61°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
55°F or below
$0 Vol.
61%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
19%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
49%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
49%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
25%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
31%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
36%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
25%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
49%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
20%
74°F or higher
$0 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model consensus point to a Saturday overnight low in Chicago near 66–70°F, with southerly flow, increasing cloud cover, and a 30–40% chance of showers after midnight limiting radiational cooling. This setup favors the 64–65°F bucket currently holding the highest market-implied probability, while the near-even odds on much colder or warmer extremes reflect lingering uncertainty in exact cloud timing and shower coverage. Southerly winds around 5–10 mph and dew points in the upper 50s should keep the minimum above typical late-August climatology unless clearer skies develop earlier than forecast. Updated NWS guidance and overnight model runs ahead of resolution will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model consensus point to a Saturday overnight low in Chicago near 66–70°F, with southerly flow, increasing cloud cover, and a 30–40% chance of showers after midnight limiting radiational cooling. This setup favors the 64–65°F bucket currently holding the highest market-implied probability, while the near-even odds on much colder or warmer extremes reflect lingering uncertainty in exact cloud timing and shower coverage. Southerly winds around 5–10 mph and dew points in the upper 50s should keep the minimum above typical late-August climatology unless clearer skies develop earlier than forecast. Updated NWS guidance and overnight model runs ahead of resolution will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model consensus point to a Saturday overnight low in Chicago near 66–70°F, with southerly flow, increasing cloud cover, and a 30–40% chance of showers after midnight limiting radiational cooling. This setup favors the 64–65°F bucket currently holding the highest market-implied probability, while the near-even odds on much colder or warmer extremes reflect lingering uncertainty in exact cloud timing and shower coverage. Southerly winds around 5–10 mph and dew points in the upper 50s should keep the minimum above typical late-August climatology unless clearer skies develop earlier than forecast. Updated NWS guidance and overnight model runs ahead of resolution will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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