Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a warm air mass dominating São Paulo on August 29, with nighttime radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies likely producing a minimum near 19–21°C. This supports the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds, while the 28.5% probability on 13°C or below reflects residual model uncertainty over the precise strength of nocturnal cooling and any localized wind or humidity effects. A stronger cold front is not expected until early September, keeping the immediate risk of deeper polar air intrusion low. Traders are weighting current observational trends and ensemble guidance on dew points and surface pressure, which favor the upper end of the typical August minimum range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 29?
13°C or below 57%
14°C 47%
15°C 47%
20°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
13°C or below
57%
14°C
47%
15°C
47%
16°C
25%
17°C
25%
18°C
24%
19°C
31%
20°C
32%
21°C
27%
22°C
24%
23°C or higher
2%
13°C or below 57%
14°C 47%
15°C 47%
20°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
13°C or below
$5 Vol.
57%
14°C
$5 Vol.
47%
15°C
$5 Vol.
47%
16°C
$0 Vol.
25%
17°C
$0 Vol.
25%
18°C
$0 Vol.
24%
19°C
$2 Vol.
31%
20°C
$2 Vol.
32%
21°C
$2 Vol.
27%
22°C
$2 Vol.
24%
23°C or higher
$2 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a warm air mass dominating São Paulo on August 29, with nighttime radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies likely producing a minimum near 19–21°C. This supports the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds, while the 28.5% probability on 13°C or below reflects residual model uncertainty over the precise strength of nocturnal cooling and any localized wind or humidity effects. A stronger cold front is not expected until early September, keeping the immediate risk of deeper polar air intrusion low. Traders are weighting current observational trends and ensemble guidance on dew points and surface pressure, which favor the upper end of the typical August minimum range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$26End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a warm air mass dominating São Paulo on August 29, with nighttime radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies likely producing a minimum near 19–21°C. This supports the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds, while the 28.5% probability on 13°C or below reflects residual model uncertainty over the precise strength of nocturnal cooling and any localized wind or humidity effects. A stronger cold front is not expected until early September, keeping the immediate risk of deeper polar air intrusion low. Traders are weighting current observational trends and ensemble guidance on dew points and surface pressure, which favor the upper end of the typical August minimum range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$26End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a warm air mass dominating São Paulo on August 29, with nighttime radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies likely producing a minimum near 19–21°C. This supports the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds, while the 28.5% probability on 13°C or below reflects residual model uncertainty over the precise strength of nocturnal cooling and any localized wind or humidity effects. A stronger cold front is not expected until early September, keeping the immediate risk of deeper polar air intrusion low. Traders are weighting current observational trends and ensemble guidance on dew points and surface pressure, which favor the upper end of the typical August minimum range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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